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Author Conrad Lofton

Published

Estimated

The Treasury curve is 1-3 basis points lower to start the morning as signs of the labor markets continued cooling persist.

Employment data from October and November was released this morning with the headline being unemployment rising to 4.6%, the highest since pandemic recovery. There will be 3 Fed speakers today– Governor Waller, FRB NY President Williams, and FRB Atlanta President Bostic – who will all get a chance to comment on the data release from this morning.

Conrad Lofton
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
12/16/2025ADP Weekly Employment Preliminary Estimate   
12/16/2025BLS to Release Oct.-Nov. Jobs Data; No Oct. Unemployment Rate   
12/16/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls     —-105k108k
12/16/2025Change in Private Payrolls     —52k104k
12/16/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —-8k51k
12/16/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls     —-9k-5k
12/16/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM     —0.40%0.20%
12/16/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY     —3.70%3.70%
12/16/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees     —34.234.2
12/16/2025Unemployment Rate4.50%4.60%     —
12/16/2025Underemployment Rate     —8.70%     —
12/16/2025Labor Force Participation Rate62.40%62.50%     —
12/16/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM0.10%0.00%0.20%
12/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%0.40%0.30%
12/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.50%0.10%
12/16/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.80%-0.10%
12/16/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —-20-21.7
12/16/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls50k64k-105k
12/16/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —22k-8k
12/16/2025Change in Private Payrolls50k69k52k
12/16/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls-5k-5k-9k
12/16/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.10%0.40%
12/16/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.60%3.50%3.70%
12/16/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.234.334.2
12/16/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52.1     —52.2
12/16/2025S&P Global US Services PMI54     —54.1
12/16/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI53.9     —54.2
12/16/2025Business Inventories0.10%     —0.00%
12/17/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —4.80%
12/17/2025-12/21/2025Housing Starts1328k     —1307k
12/17/2025-12/21/2025Building Permits1350k     —1330k
12/17/2025-12/21/2025Housing Starts MoM1.60%     —     —
12/17/2025-12/21/2025Building Permits MoM1.50%     —     —
12/17/2025-12/21/2025Construction Spending MoM0.00%     —0.20%
12/17/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales714k     —800k
12/17/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales MoM-10.80%     —20.50%
12/18/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k     —236k
12/18/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —216.75k
12/18/2025Continuing Claims1922k     —1838k
12/18/2025BLS Will Not Publish Oct. All-Items and Core CPI   
12/18/2025CPI YoY3.10%     —     —
12/18/2025Core CPI YoY3.00%     —     —
12/18/2025CPI Index NSA325.2     —     —
12/18/2025Core CPI Index SA332.06     —     —
12/18/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —0.80%
12/18/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.70%
12/18/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2.7     —-1.7
12/18/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity6     —8
12/18/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$190.1b
12/18/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$179.8b
12/19/2025Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey   
12/19/2025Existing Home Sales4.15m     —4.10m
12/19/2025Existing Home Sales MoM1.20%     —1.20%
12/19/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment53.5     —53.3
12/19/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —50.7
12/19/2025U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —55
12/19/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.10%
12/19/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.20%     —3.20%
12/19/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —-7
12/20/2025-12/26/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
12/20/2025-12/31/2025New Home Sales     —     —     —
12/20/2025-12/31/2025New Home Sales MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.2     —     —
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Housing Starts     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Housing Starts MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/30/2025Business Inventories     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Building Permits     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025-1/02/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Construction Spending MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/31/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —-0.20%
12/23/2025ADP Weekly Employment Preliminary Estimate   
12/23/2025GDP Annualized QoQ3.20%     —     —
12/23/2025Personal Consumption     —     —     —
12/23/2025GDP Price Index2.60%     —     —
12/23/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ     —     —     —
12/23/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-16.3
12/23/2025Durable Goods Orders-1.50%     —0.50%
12/23/2025Durables Ex Transportation0.30%     —0.60%
12/23/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.40%     —0.90%
12/23/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.90%
12/23/2025Fed to Release Oct. and Nov. Industrial Production on Dec. 23   
12/23/2025Industrial Production MoM0.10%     —0.10%
12/23/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production     —     —0.00%
12/23/2025Capacity Utilization75.90%     —75.90%
12/23/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-15
12/23/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-15
12/23/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence91.9     —88.7
12/23/2025Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —126.9
12/23/2025Conf. Board Expectations     —     —63.2
12/23/2025-12/25/2025Building Permits     —     —     —

Conrad Lofton

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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