Yields are higher this morning.
Initially, the curve was 3 to 4 bps higher, with the 10-year hitting 4.44%, but they’ve since retraced some of that move and sit roughly 2 bps higher since yesterday’s close. US retail sales beat estimates, rising 0.7% last month (0.6% was the median forecast), led by an increase in auto purchases. Excluding auto sales, retail sales rose by 0.2%, lower than the median forecast of +0.4%. 7 of the 13 categories in the report were up last month, e-commerce sales rose by 1.8% and purchases at retail building material stores were up 0.4%.
Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior |
| 12/17/24 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.60% | 0.70% | 0.40% |
| 12/17/24 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| 12/17/24 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| 12/17/24 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | 0.40% | -0.10% |
| 12/17/24 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | -5.2 | -0.5 |
| 12/17/24 | Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey | |||
| 12/17/24 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.30% |
| 12/17/24 | Capacity Utilization | 77.30% | — | 77.10% |
| 12/17/24 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.50% | — | -0.50% |
| 12/17/24 | Business Inventories | 0.10% | — | 0.10% |
| 12/17/24 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 47 | — | 46 |
| 12/18/24 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 5.40% |
| 12/18/24 | Housing Starts | 1345k | — | 1311k |
| 12/18/24 | Housing Starts MoM | 2.60% | — | -3.10% |
| 12/18/24 | Building Permits | 1430k | — | 1416k |
| 12/18/24 | Building Permits MoM | 1.00% | — | -0.60% |
| 12/18/24 | Current Account Balance | -$287.1b | — | -$266.8b |
| 12/18/24 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 4.50% | — | 4.75% |
| 12/18/24 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 4.25% | — | 4.50% |
| 12/18/24 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 4.40% | — | 4.65% |
| 12/18/24 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr | 4.38% | — | 4.38% |
| 12/18/24 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr | 3.63% | — | 3.38% |
| 12/18/24 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs | 3.13% | — | 2.88% |
| 12/18/24 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs | 3.13% | — | 2.88% |
| 12/18/24 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run | 3.00% | — | 2.88% |
| 12/19/24 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.80% | — | 2.80% |
| 12/19/24 | Personal Consumption | 3.60% | — | 3.50% |
| 12/19/24 | GDP Price Index | 1.90% | — | 1.90% |
| 12/19/24 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 2.10% | — | 2.10% |
| 12/19/24 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 2.8 | — | -5.5 |
| 12/19/24 | Initial Jobless Claims | 230k | — | 242k |
| 12/19/24 | Continuing Claims | 1890k | — | 1886k |
| 12/19/24 | Leading Index | -0.10% | — | -0.40% |
| 12/19/24 | Existing Home Sales | 4.09m | — | 3.96m |
| 12/19/24 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 3.30% | — | 3.40% |
| 12/19/24 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -1 | — | -2 |
| 12/19/24 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $398.4b |
| 12/19/24 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $216.1b |
| 12/20/24 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.60% |
| 12/20/24 | Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | 0.40% |
| 12/20/24 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.10% |
| 12/20/24 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% |
| 12/20/24 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.30% |
| 12/20/24 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% |
| 12/20/24 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.90% | — | 2.80% |
| 12/20/24 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 74.2 | — | 74 |
| 12/20/24 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 77.7 |
| 12/20/24 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 71.6 |
| 12/20/24 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.90% |
| 12/20/24 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.10% | — | 3.10% |
| 12/20/24 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 9 |
