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Author Kirby Hart

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are 1-2 basis points higher across the curve in a continued steepening move.

All eyes are now on tomorrow morning’s release of the November CPI data to see whether inflation has moved closer to the FOMC’s 2% target. The next releases of inflation data will give investors a better idea of whether the Fed will make further cuts in 2026. Currently, Fed Funds futures have two total rate cuts priced in for 2026. Stock futures point to the first positive open in 4 days, following last week’s tech selloff driven by poor earnings reports from Oracle and other negative headlines.

Kirby Hart
Associate

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
12/17/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —-3.80%4.80%
12/17/2025-12/21/2025Housing Starts1328k     —1307k
12/17/2025-12/21/2025Building Permits1350k     —1330k
12/17/2025-12/21/2025Housing Starts MoM1.60%     —     —
12/17/2025-12/21/2025Building Permits MoM1.50%     —     —
12/17/2025-12/21/2025Construction Spending MoM0.00%     —0.20%
12/17/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales714k     —800k
12/17/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales MoM-10.80%     —20.50%
12/18/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k     —236k
12/18/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —216.75k
12/18/2025Continuing Claims1922k     —1838k
12/18/2025BLS Will Not Publish Oct. All-Items and Core CPI   
12/18/2025CPI YoY3.10%     —     —
12/18/2025Core CPI YoY3.00%     —     —
12/18/2025CPI Index NSA325.185     —     —
12/18/2025Core CPI Index SA332.06     —     —
12/18/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —     —
12/18/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —0.80%
12/18/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2.3     —-1.7
12/18/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity6     —8
12/18/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$190.1b
12/18/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$179.8b
12/19/2025Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey   
12/19/2025Existing Home Sales4.15m     —4.10m
12/19/2025Existing Home Sales MoM1.20%     —1.20%
12/19/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment53.5     —53.3
12/19/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —50.7
12/19/2025U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —55
12/19/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.00%     —4.10%
12/19/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.20%     —3.20%
12/19/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —-7
12/20/2025-12/26/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
12/20/2025-12/31/2025New Home Sales     —     —     —
12/20/2025-12/31/2025New Home Sales MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.2     —     —
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Housing Starts     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Housing Starts MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/30/2025Business Inventories     —     —0.20%
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Building Permits     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025-1/02/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Construction Spending MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/31/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —-0.20%
12/23/2025ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —16.250k
12/23/2025GDP Annualized QoQ3.20%     —     —
12/23/2025Personal Consumption     —     —     —
12/23/2025GDP Price Index2.60%     —     —
12/23/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ     —     —     —
12/23/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-16.3
12/23/2025Durable Goods Orders-1.40%     —0.50%
12/23/2025Durables Ex Transportation0.30%     —0.60%
12/23/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.40%     —0.90%
12/23/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.90%
12/23/2025Fed to Release Oct. and Nov. Industrial Production on Dec. 23   
12/23/2025Industrial Production MoM0.10%     —0.10%
12/23/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production     —     —0.00%
12/23/2025Capacity Utilization75.90%     —75.90%
12/23/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-15
12/23/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-15
12/23/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence91.7     —88.7
12/23/2025Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —126.9
12/23/2025Conf. Board Expectations     —     —63.2
12/23/2025-12/25/2025Building Permits     —     —     —
12/24/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-3.80%
12/24/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —     —
12/24/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
12/24/2025Continuing Claims     —     —     —

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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