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Author Jason Haley

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A modest rally in Treasuries overnight pushed yields 3-4 basis points lower on the front-end of the curve to start the day, and yields fairly steady following the release of this morning’s economic data.

Initial jobless claims fell to 224,000 last week, essentially matching expectations. Claims had popped higher to 237,000 the prior week, but there was typical noise in the data related to the Thanksgiving holiday period. We also received CPI data this morning, but not in the normal format. Due to the government shutdown, the BLS chose not to release the October report, so today’s November report included no month-over-month inflation rates. On a year-over-year basis, headline CPI rose 2.7% (3.1% expected), and core CPI rose 2.6% (3.0% expected), the slowest core rate since 2021. For financial markets, the general perception is that the inflation data is playing second fiddle to labor market data from the Fed’s perspective, so the reaction has been muted thus far.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
12/18/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k224k236k
12/18/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —217.50k216.75k
12/18/2025Continuing Claims1920k1897k1838k
12/18/2025BLS Will Not Publish Oct. All-Items and Core CPI   
12/18/2025CPI YoY3.10%2.70%     —
12/18/2025Core CPI YoY3.00%2.60%     —
12/18/2025CPI Index NSA325.18324.122     —
12/18/2025Core CPI Index SA332.094331.068     —
12/18/2025BLS Will Not Publish October Real Earnings Data   
12/18/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —0.80%     —
12/18/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —0.80%     —
12/18/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2.3-10.2-1.7
12/18/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity6     —8
12/18/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$190.1b
12/18/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$179.8b
12/18/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales714k     —800k
12/18/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales MoM-10.80%     —20.50%
12/19/2025Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey   
12/19/2025Existing Home Sales4.15m     —4.10m
12/19/2025Existing Home Sales MoM1.20%     —1.20%
12/19/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment53.5     —53.3
12/19/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —50.7
12/19/2025U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —55
12/19/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.00%     —4.10%
12/19/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.20%     —3.20%
12/19/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —-7
12/19/2025-12/21/2025Housing Starts1328k     —1307k
12/19/2025-12/21/2025Building Permits1350k     —1330k
12/19/2025-12/21/2025Housing Starts MoM1.60%     —     —
12/19/2025-12/21/2025Building Permits MoM1.50%     —     —
12/19/2025-12/21/2025Construction Spending MoM0.00%     —0.20%
12/20/2025-12/26/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
12/20/2025-12/31/2025New Home Sales     —     —     —
12/20/2025-12/31/2025New Home Sales MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.2     —     —
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Housing Starts     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Housing Starts MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/30/2025Business Inventories     —     —0.20%
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Building Permits     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025-1/02/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Construction Spending MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/31/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —-0.20%
12/23/2025ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —16.250k
12/23/2025GDP Annualized QoQ3.10%     —     —
12/23/2025Personal Consumption     —     —     —
12/23/2025GDP Price Index2.60%     —     —
12/23/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ     —     —     —
12/23/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-16.3
12/23/2025Durable Goods Orders-1.40%     —0.50%
12/23/2025Durables Ex Transportation0.30%     —0.60%
12/23/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.40%     —0.90%
12/23/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.90%
12/23/2025Fed to Release Oct. and Nov. Industrial Production on Dec. 23   
12/23/2025Industrial Production MoM0.10%     —0.10%
12/23/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production     —     —0.00%
12/23/2025Capacity Utilization75.90%     —75.90%
12/23/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-15
12/23/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-15
12/23/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence91.4     —88.7
12/23/2025Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —126.9
12/23/2025Conf. Board Expectations     —     —63.2
12/23/2025-12/25/2025Building Permits     —     —     —
12/24/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-3.80%
12/24/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —224k
12/24/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —217.50k
12/24/2025Continuing Claims     —     —1897k

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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