Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are leaking higher 2-3 basis points to end the week after the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to the highest level in more than three decades with a hawkish bias for more hikes.

There is also some modest retracing of yesterday’s post-CPI rally. There was broad skepticism in the economist community of yesterday’s inflation report, which implied sharp slowdowns in many sectors over the prior 2-3 months amid the government shutdown. The normal reporting methodology should be in place for the December CPI report to be released on January 13. Later this morning, November existing home sales data will be released, as well as the final look at the November University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
12/19/2025Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey   
12/19/2025Existing Home Sales4.15m     —4.10m
12/19/2025Existing Home Sales MoM1.20%     —1.20%
12/19/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment53.5     —53.3
12/19/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions50.7     —50.7
12/19/2025U. of Mich. Expectations55     —55
12/19/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.10%     —4.10%
12/19/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.20%     —3.20%
12/19/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —-7
12/19/2025-12/21/2025Housing Starts1328k     —1307k
12/19/2025-12/21/2025Building Permits1350k     —1330k
12/19/2025-12/21/2025Housing Starts MoM1.60%     —     —
12/19/2025-12/21/2025Building Permits MoM1.50%     —     —
12/20/2025-12/26/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.2     —     —
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Housing Starts     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Housing Starts MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/30/2025Business Inventories     —     —0.20%
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Building Permits     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025-1/02/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Construction Spending MoM0.00%     —0.20%
12/22/2025-12/31/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —-0.20%
12/22/2025-12/26/2025New Home Sales709k     —800k
12/22/2025-12/26/2025New Home Sales MoM-11.40%     —20.50%
12/23/2025ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —16.250k
12/23/2025GDP Annualized QoQ3.20%     —     —
12/23/2025Personal Consumption     —     —     —
12/23/2025GDP Price Index2.60%     —     —
12/23/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ     —     —     —
12/23/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-16.3
12/23/2025Durable Goods Orders-1.50%     —0.50%
12/23/2025Durables Ex Transportation0.30%     —0.60%
12/23/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.40%     —0.90%
12/23/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.90%
12/23/2025Fed to Release Oct. and Nov. Industrial Production on Dec. 23   
12/23/2025Industrial Production MoM0.10%     —0.10%
12/23/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production     —     —0.00%
12/23/2025Capacity Utilization75.90%     —75.90%
12/23/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-15
12/23/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-15
12/23/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence91.7     —88.7
12/23/2025Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —126.9
12/23/2025Conf. Board Expectations     —     —63.2
12/23/2025-12/25/2025Building Permits     —     —     —
12/24/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-3.80%
12/24/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —224k
12/24/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —217.50k
12/24/2025Continuing Claims     —     —1897k

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.