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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are 4-8 basis points (bps) higher to start the week, with front-end yields up the most.

This morning’s move retraces some of last week’s 20-25 bps rally during the holiday week. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the November jobs report on Friday, which is currently expected to show 200,000 jobs added to nonfarm payrolls and no change in the unemployment rate. Last week’s PCE report showed the core rate rising 0.3% for a second consecutive month, and the year-over-year core measure was 2.8%, the highest since April. Several Fed leaders speak this week, and market participants will be listening for any hint of fresh concern related to inflation risks.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
12/2/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI48.8—48.8—
12/2/2024Construction Spending MoM0.20%—0.10%—
12/2/2024ISM Manufacturing47.5—46.5—
12/2/2024ISM Prices Paid55.2—54.8—
12/2/2024ISM New Orders48—47.1—
12/2/2024ISM Employment47—44.4—
12/3/2024JOLTS Job Openings7495k—7443k—
12/3/2024Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.00m—16.04m—
12/4/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——6.30%—
12/4/2024ADP Employment Change158k—233k—
12/4/2024S&P Global US Services PMI57—57—
12/4/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI——55.3—
12/4/2024Factory Orders0.40%—-0.50%—
12/4/2024Factory Orders Ex Trans——0.10%—
12/4/2024ISM Services Index55.6—56—
12/4/2024ISM Services Prices Paid——58.1—
12/4/2024Durable Goods Orders——0.20%—
12/4/2024ISM Services Employment——53—
12/4/2024Durables Ex Transportation——0.10%—
12/4/2024ISM Services New Orders——57.4—
12/4/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air——-0.20%—
12/4/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——0.20%—
12/4/2024Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book    
12/5/2024Challenger Job Cuts YoY——50.90%—
12/5/2024Trade Balance-$74.9b—-$84.4b—
12/5/2024Initial Jobless Claims215k—213k—
12/5/2024Continuing Claims1904k—1907k—
12/6/2024Change in Nonfarm Payrolls200k—12k—
12/6/2024Two-Month Payroll Net Revision——-112k—
12/6/2024Change in Private Payrolls200k—-28k—
12/6/2024Change in Manufact. Payrolls30k—-46k—
12/6/2024Unemployment Rate4.10%—4.10%—
12/6/2024Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%—0.40%—
12/6/2024Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.90%—4.00%—
12/6/2024Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3—34.3—
12/6/2024Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%—62.60%—
12/6/2024Underemployment Rate——7.70%—
12/6/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment73.3—71.8—
12/6/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions——63.9—
12/6/2024U. of Mich. Expectations——76.9—
12/6/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——2.60%—
12/6/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——3.20%—
12/6/2024Consumer Credit$10.000b—$6.002b—
12/9/2024Wholesale Trade Sales MoM——0.30%—
12/9/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM——0.20%—
12/9/2024NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations——2.87%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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