A modest overnight rally in Treasuries has reversed this morning, and yields are up 2 basis points for 5-year and longer maturities.
The reversal began after CPI readings in the Eurozone came in higher than expected. The White House is reportedly lowering tariffs on South Korean automobiles to 15% from 25% as of November 1 (retroactive), as well as removing tariffs on South Korean airplane parts. In related news, Costco is one of the most recent and largest companies joining the lawsuit against the White House seeking to refund tariffs paid should the Supreme Court rule them illegal. The Fed is in blackout period for public comments ahead of the December 10 FOMC meeting, but Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will testify today before the House Financial Services Committee at a hearing on oversight of financial regulators. Bowman has been working to ease regulations on the banking industry since taking on the role on June 9.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 12/02/2025 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.40m | — | 15.32m | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/12/2025 | Housing Starts | 1330k | — | 1307k | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/19/2025 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.00% | -0.10% |
| 12/02/2025-12/19/2025 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | — | — | -$85.5b | -$84.3b |
| 12/02/2025-12/24/2025 | Leading Index | -0.30% | — | — | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/31/2025 | Advance Goods Exports MoM SA | — | — | -1.30% | -0.20% |
| 12/02/2025-12/31/2025 | Advance Goods Imports MoM SA | — | — | -7.00% | -6.60% |
| 12/02/2025-12/12/2025 | Building Permits | 1349k | — | 1330k | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/12/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | 1.80% | — | — | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/12/2025 | Building Permits MoM | 1.40% | — | — | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/10/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/12/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/10/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.60% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/19/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/10/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/10/2025 | Factory Orders | 0.50% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/10/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/19/2025 | New Home Sales | 716k | — | — | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/10/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/19/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | -10.60% | — | — | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.90% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/31/2025 | Trade Balance | -$63.2b | — | -$59.6b | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/31/2025 | Exports MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/31/2025 | Imports MoM | — | — | -5.10% | — |
| 12/03/2025 7:00 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/03/2025 8:15 | ADP Employment Change | 5k | — | 42k | — |
| 12/03/2025 8:30 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/03/2025 8:30 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/03/2025 8:30 | Import Price Index YoY | 0.40% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/03/2025 8:30 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/03/2025 8:30 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 3.40% | — |
| 12/03/2025 9:15 | Capacity Utilization | 77.20% | — | 77.40% | 75.80% |
| 12/03/2025 9:15 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.00% | — | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| 12/03/2025 9:15 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | -0.10% |
| 12/03/2025 9:45 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 55 | — | 55 | — |
| 12/03/2025 9:45 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.8 | — |
| 12/03/2025 10:00 | ISM Services Index | 52 | — | 52.4 | — |
| 12/03/2025 10:00 | ISM Services Prices Paid | 68 | — | 70 | — |
| 12/03/2025 10:00 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 56.2 | — |
| 12/03/2025 10:00 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 48.2 | — |
| 12/04/2025 7:30 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 175.30% | — |
| 12/04/2025 7:30 | Challenger Job Cuts Total | — | — | 153074 | — |
| 12/04/2025 8:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | — | 216k | — |
| 12/04/2025 8:30 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 223.75k | — |
| 12/04/2025 8:30 | Continuing Claims | 1963k | — | 1960k | — |
| 12/05/2025 10:00 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | — | — |
| 12/05/2025 10:00 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | — | — |
| 12/05/2025 10:00 | Real Personal Spending | 0.10% | — | — | — |
| 12/05/2025 10:00 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | — | — |
| 12/05/2025 10:00 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.80% | — | — | — |
| 12/05/2025 10:00 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | — | — |
| 12/05/2025 10:00 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.80% | — | — | — |
| 12/05/2025 10:00 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 52 | — | 51 | — |
| 12/05/2025 10:00 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 52.1 | — | 51.1 | — |
| 12/05/2025 10:00 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 53.1 | — | 51 | — |
| 12/05/2025 10:00 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.50% | — | 4.50% | — |
| 12/05/2025 10:00 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.40% | — | 3.40% | — |
| 12/05/2025 15:00 | Consumer Credit | $11.000b | — | $13.093b | — |
| 12/05/2025-12/19/2025 | Business Inventories | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/08/2025 11:00 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.24% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | Personal Income | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/26/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | Personal Spending | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Building Permits | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | Real Personal Spending | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/26/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/26/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/26/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | — | — | — | — |
| 12/09/2025 6:00 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | — | — | 98.2 | — |
| 12/09/2025 10:00 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | — | — |
| 12/09/2025 10:00 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | — | — |
| 12/09/2025 10:00 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | — | — |
| 12/09/2025 10:00 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | — | — |
| 12/09/2025 10:00 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | — | — |
| 12/09/2025 10:00 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | — | — |
| 12/09/2025-12/31/2025 | Nonfarm Productivity | — | — | — | — |
| 12/09/2025-12/31/2025 | Unit Labor Costs | — | — | — | — |
