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Author Jason Haley

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Softer November PCE data is fueling a rally in Treasuries to start the day.

Both headline and core PCE rose 0.1% m/m last month versus expectations of a 0.2% gain (and worries about a higher-than-expected core figure). The year-over-year figures were also lower than expected, with the core rate holding steady at 2.8%. Personal income and spending growth were both 0.1% below expectations. Front-end Treasury yields are down 6-8 basis points in the initial reaction.

In other news, the government spending bill supported by President-Elect Trump failed to pass the House last night, with 38 Republicans joining Democrats to defeat the stop-gap funding bill. The short-term package would have funded the federal government until March 14, and it would have also suspended the debt ceiling for two years. Trump said earlier in the day that he would not endorse a deal that did not include an extension or elimination of the debt ceiling.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
12/20/2024Personal Income0.40%0.30%0.60%0.70%
12/20/2024Personal Spending0.50%0.40%0.40%0.30%
12/20/2024Real Personal Spending0.30%0.30%0.10%—
12/20/2024PCE Price Index MoM0.20%0.10%0.20%—
12/20/2024PCE Price Index YoY2.50%2.40%2.30%—
12/20/2024Core PCE Price Index MoM0.20%0.10%0.30%—
12/20/2024Core PCE Price Index YoY2.90%2.80%2.80%—
12/20/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment74.2—74—
12/20/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions77.1—77.7—
12/20/2024U. of Mich. Expectations71.9—71.6—
12/20/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%—2.90%—
12/20/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.10%—3.10%—
12/20/2024Kansas City Fed Services Activity——9—
12/23/2024Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index——-0.4—
12/23/2024Conf. Board Consumer Confidence113—111.7—
12/23/2024Conf. Board Present Situation——140.9—
12/23/2024Conf. Board Expectations——92.3—
12/24/2024Building Permits——1505k—
12/24/2024Building Permits MoM——6.10%—
12/24/2024Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity——-5.9—
12/24/2024Durable Goods Orders-0.30%—0.30%—
12/24/2024Durables Ex Transportation0.30%—0.20%—
12/24/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.10%—-0.20%—
12/24/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——0.30%—
12/24/2024New Home Sales665k—610k—
12/24/2024New Home Sales MoM9.00%—-17.30%—
12/24/2024Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-10—-14—
12/24/2024Richmond Fed Business Conditions——10—
12/26/2024Initial Jobless Claims——220k—
12/26/2024Continuing Claims——1874k—
12/27/2024Advance Goods Trade Balance-$101.1b—-$99.1b-$98.3b
12/27/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM——0.20%—
12/27/2024Retail Inventories MoM——0.10%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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