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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are leaking 1-2 basis points higher amid light trading volumes, which will likely be a common theme for the remainder of the year.

President-elect Trump has tapped economist Stephen Miran to chair his Council of Economic Advisers. During the first Trump term, Miran was a senior adviser for economic policy in the Treasury Department. On the data front, durable goods orders fell more than expected in November at -1.1% due to a 7% decline in commercial aircraft orders. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, often referred to as core orders, rose 0.7% m/m versus expectations of a 0.1% increase. Accounting for prior revisions, this is the biggest monthly increase in core orders of capital goods since August 2023.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
12/23/2024Building Permits—1493k1505k—
12/23/2024Building Permits MoM—5.20%6.10%—
12/23/2024Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.15-0.12-0.4-0.5
12/23/2024Durable Goods Orders-0.30%-1.10%0.30%0.80%
12/23/2024Durables Ex Transportation0.30%-0.10%0.20%—
12/23/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.10%0.70%-0.20%-0.10%
12/23/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.20%0.50%0.30%0.40%
12/23/2024New Home Sales670k—610k—
12/23/2024New Home Sales MoM9.80%—-17.30%—
12/23/2024Conf. Board Consumer Confidence113.2—111.7—
12/23/2024Conf. Board Present Situation——140.9—
12/23/2024Conf. Board Expectations——92.3—
12/24/2024Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity——-5.9—
12/24/2024Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-10—-14—
12/24/2024Richmond Fed Business Conditions——10—
12/26/2024Initial Jobless Claims224k—220k—
12/26/2024Continuing Claims1884k—1874k—
12/27/2024Advance Goods Trade Balance-$101.4b—-$99.1b-$98.3b
12/27/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%—0.20%—
12/27/2024Retail Inventories MoM0.30%—0.10%—
12/30/2024MNI Chicago PMI42.8—40.2—
12/30/2024Pending Home Sales MoM0.80%—2.00%—
12/30/2024Pending Home Sales NSA YoY7.90%—6.60%—
12/30/2024Dallas Fed Manf. Activity0—-2.7—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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