Treasury yields are drifting higher following a strong Q3 GDP report.
The topline growth rate was 4.3% q/q (annualized), 100 bps more than expected and the highest in two years. Contributing heavily to the move, personal consumption rose 3.5% (2.7% expected). Also contributing to the higher growth rate was an improved trade balance (higher net exports), and real final sales to domestic purchasers (GDP minus inventories and trade) rose 50 bps to 2.9%. Business investment rose a solid 2.8%, boosted by outlays for computer equipment (AI infrastructure buildout).
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 12/23/2025 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | 11.500k | 16.250k | 17.500k |
| 12/23/2025 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 3.30% | 4.30% | 3.80% | — |
| 12/23/2025 | Personal Consumption | 2.70% | 3.50% | 2.50% | — |
| 12/23/2025 | GDP Price Index | 2.70% | 3.80% | 2.10% | — |
| 12/23/2025 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 2.90% | 2.90% | 2.60% | — |
| 12/23/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | -15 | -16.8 | -16.3 | — |
| 12/23/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | -1.50% | -2.20% | 0.50% | 0.70% |
| 12/23/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.60% | 0.70% |
| 12/23/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.90% | 1.10% |
| 12/23/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | 0.70% | 0.90% | 1.20% |
| 12/23/2025 | Fed to Release Oct. and Nov. Industrial Production on Dec. 23 | ||||
| 12/23/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/23/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/23/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 75.90% | — | 75.90% | — |
| 12/23/2025 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | -10 | — | -15 | — |
| 12/23/2025 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | -9 | — | -15 | — |
| 12/23/2025 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 91 | — | 88.7 | — |
| 12/23/2025 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 126.9 | — |
| 12/23/2025 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 63.2 | — |
| 12/24/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -3.80% | — |
| 12/24/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 223k | — | 224k | — |
| 12/24/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 217.50k | — |
| 12/24/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1900k | — | 1897k | — |
| 12/29/2025 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.80% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 12/29/2025 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 0.40% | — | -0.40% | — |
| 12/29/2025 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | -5 | — | -10.4 | — |
| 12/30/2025 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | — | 11.500k | — |
| 12/30/2025 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/30/2025 | S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.10% | — | 0.13% | — |
| 12/30/2025 | S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA | 1.10% | — | 1.36% | — |
| 12/30/2025 | S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 1.29% | — |
| 12/30/2025 | MNI Chicago PMI | 39.5 | — | 36.3 | — |
| 12/30/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -2.3 | — |
| 12/30/2025 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
