Treasury yields opened unchanged to slightly lower this morning as participation began to wane ahead of the holiday break.
The only economic release on the calendar for today was for initial jobless claims that showed a minor decrease of 10,000 to 214,000. Initial claims applications have shown some volatility in the data which is typical around the holidays. Multiple large employers such as PepsiCo Inc. and HP Inc. have announced recent job cuts but those headlines haven’t directly translated to a noticeable pick-up in the data. There is an early close scheduled in the market today at 2:00 eastern time and we would like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
Chris Eckhoff
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 12/22/2025 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | -0.17 | -0.21 | -0.12 | -0.31 |
| 12/23/2025 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | 11.500k | 16.250k | 17.500k |
| 12/23/2025 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 3.30% | 4.30% | 3.80% | — |
| 12/23/2025 | Personal Consumption | 2.70% | 3.50% | 2.50% | — |
| 12/23/2025 | GDP Price Index | 2.70% | 3.80% | 2.10% | — |
| 12/23/2025 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 2.90% | 2.90% | 2.60% | — |
| 12/23/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | -15 | -16.8 | -16.3 | — |
| 12/23/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | -1.50% | -2.20% | 0.50% | 0.70% |
| 12/23/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.60% | 0.70% |
| 12/23/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.90% | 1.10% |
| 12/23/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | 0.70% | 0.90% | 1.20% |
| 12/23/2025 | Fed to Release Oct. and Nov. Industrial Production on Dec. 23 | ||||
| 12/23/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 75.90% | 75.90% | 75.90% | 76.00% |
| 12/23/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | -0.10% | -0.10% | 0.10% | — |
| 12/23/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | -0.10% | -0.40% | 0.00% | — |
| 12/23/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.10% | 0.20% | -0.10% | — |
| 12/23/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.10% | 0.00% | -0.40% | — |
| 12/23/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 75.90% | 76.00% | 75.90% | — |
| 12/23/2025 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | -10 | -7 | -15 | — |
| 12/23/2025 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | -9 | -11 | -15 | — |
| 12/23/2025 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 91 | 89.1 | 88.7 | 92.9 |
| 12/23/2025 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 116.8 | 126.9 | 126.3 |
| 12/23/2025 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 70.7 | 63.2 | 70.7 |
| 12/24/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -5.00% | -3.80% | — |
| 12/24/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 224k | 214k | 224k | — |
| 12/24/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | 216.75k | 217.50k | — |
| 12/24/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1900k | 1923k | 1897k | 1885k |
