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Author Jason Haley

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It’s an expectedly quiet trading session on the Friday after Christmas.

Treasury yields are 1-3 basis points lower so far this morning. This will be our last daily commentary of the year, so we will leave you with some market stats for an almost complete 2025. The Treasury curve has steepened, with 1-month to 5-year yields down 65-75 bps, and the 30-year yield is unchanged on the year. The 10-year yield is 45 bps lower YTD. For equities, the S&P is up 17.9% YTD, while the Nasdaq 100 is up 22.3%. The US dollar index is down 10% on the year, and it has been a very strong year for precious metals. The biggest winner is platinum, up 164% YTD, followed by silver at +158%.  Gold is up a mere 72% to an all-time high of more than $4,500 per ounce.

It has been another strong year for fixed income as well. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Index has generated a YTD return of 7.29%. Within the index, securitized sectors, including Agency MBS, have generated an 8.51% YTD total return, or 1.73% in excess of duration-matched Treasuries. The corporate bond index has posted a 7.79% YTD return, besting Treasuries by 1.23%.

We wish everyone a very safe and happy New Year!

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date TimeEventPeriodSurveyActualPrior
12/29/2025Pending Home Sales MoMNov0.80%     —1.90%
12/29/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoYNov0.40%     —-0.40%
12/29/2025Dallas Fed Manf. ActivityDec-5     —-10.4
12/30/2025ADP Weekly Employment Change13-Dec     —     —11.500k
12/30/2025FHFA House Price Index MoMOct0.10%     —0.00%
12/30/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SAOct0.10%     —0.13%
12/30/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSAOct1.10%     —1.36%
12/30/2025S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSAOct     —     —1.29%
12/30/2025MNI Chicago PMIDec39.5     —36.3
12/30/2025Dallas Fed Services ActivityDec     —     —-2.3
12/30/2025FOMC Meeting Minutes10-Dec     —     —     —
12/31/2025Initial Jobless Claims27-Dec     —     —214k
12/31/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg27-Dec     —     —216.75k
12/31/2025Continuing Claims20-Dec     —     —1923k
1/2/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMIDec F51.8     —51.8
1/02/2026-1/30/2026Personal IncomeOct     —     —0.40%
1/02/2026-1/30/2026Personal SpendingOct     —     —0.30%
1/02/2026-1/30/2026Real Personal SpendingOct     —     —0.00%
1/02/2026-1/30/2026PCE Price Index MoMOct     —     —0.30%
1/02/2026-1/30/2026PCE Price Index YoYOct     —     —2.80%
1/02/2026-1/30/2026Core PCE Price Index MoMOct     —     —0.20%
1/02/2026-1/30/2026Core PCE Price Index YoYOct     —     —2.80%

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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