Treasury yields are down 3 basis points on the front-end of the curve following this morning’s round of economic data.
The ADP employment report showed private payrolls shedding 32,000 jobs in November, adding to market speculation that the FOMC will move forward with a rate cut next week despite the recent hawkish tone from several Fed leaders. In other data, the import price index was unchanged in September versus expectations for a 0.1% m/m increase. New reports suggest President Trump has made his decision on Fed Chair Powell’s replacement when his term expires next May. Trump has recently signaled that longtime economic adviser Kevin Hassett will get the nod, with the announcement potentially coming soon.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 12/3/2025 | List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown | ||||
| 12/3/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -1.40% | 0.20% | — |
| 12/3/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 10k | -32k | 42k | 47k |
| 12/3/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.30% | 0.10% |
| 12/3/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.20% | — |
| 12/3/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.00% | -0.10% |
| 12/3/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.10% | 0.00% | 0.30% | 0.10% |
| 12/3/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | — | 3.80% | 3.40% | 3.20% |
| 12/3/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | -0.10% |
| 12/3/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.00% | — | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| 12/3/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 77.20% | — | 77.40% | 75.80% |
| 12/3/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 55 | — | 55 | — |
| 12/3/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.8 | — |
| 12/3/2025 | ISM Services Index | 52 | — | 52.4 | — |
| 12/3/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | 68 | — | 70 | — |
| 12/3/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 56.2 | — |
| 12/3/2025 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 48.2 | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/12/2025 | Housing Starts | 1330k | — | 1307k | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/19/2025 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.00% | -0.10% |
| 12/02/2025-12/19/2025 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | — | — | -$85.5b | -$84.3b |
| 12/02/2025-12/24/2025 | Leading Index | -0.30% | — | — | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/31/2025 | Advance Goods Exports MoM SA | — | — | -1.30% | -0.20% |
| 12/02/2025-12/31/2025 | Advance Goods Imports MoM SA | — | — | -7.00% | -6.60% |
| 12/02/2025-12/12/2025 | Building Permits | 1349k | — | 1330k | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/12/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | 1.80% | — | — | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/12/2025 | Building Permits MoM | 1.40% | — | — | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/10/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/12/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/10/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.60% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/19/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/10/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/10/2025 | Factory Orders | 0.50% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/10/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/19/2025 | New Home Sales | 716k | — | 800k | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/10/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/19/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | -10.60% | — | 20.50% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.90% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/31/2025 | Trade Balance | -$63.2b | — | -$59.6b | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/31/2025 | Exports MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/02/2025-12/31/2025 | Imports MoM | — | — | -5.10% | — |
| 12/4/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 175.30% | — |
| 12/4/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts Total | — | — | 153074 | — |
| 12/4/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | — | 216k | — |
| 12/4/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 223.75k | — |
| 12/4/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1963k | — | 1960k | — |
| 12/5/2025 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | — | — |
| 12/5/2025 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | — | — |
| 12/5/2025 | Real Personal Spending | 0.10% | — | — | — |
| 12/5/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | — | — |
| 12/5/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.80% | — | — | — |
| 12/5/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | — | — |
| 12/5/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.80% | — | — | — |
| 12/5/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 52 | — | 51 | — |
| 12/5/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 52.1 | — | 51.1 | — |
| 12/5/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 53.1 | — | 51 | — |
| 12/5/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.50% | — | 4.50% | — |
| 12/5/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.40% | — | 3.40% | — |
| 12/5/2025 | Consumer Credit | $11.000b | — | $13.093b | — |
| 12/8/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.24% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | Personal Income | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/26/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | Personal Spending | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Building Permits | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | Real Personal Spending | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/26/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/26/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/26/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 3.80% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/9/2025 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | — | — | 98.2 | — |
| 12/9/2025 | BLS Releases Sept. & Oct. JOLTS Data | ||||
| 12/9/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | — | — |
| 12/9/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | — | — |
| 12/9/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | — | — |
| 12/9/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | — | — |
| 12/9/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | — | — |
| 12/9/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | — | — |
| 12/09/2025-12/31/2025 | Nonfarm Productivity | — | — | 3.30% | — |
| 12/09/2025-12/31/2025 | Unit Labor Costs | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -1.40% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | Employment Cost Index | 0.90% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 3.75% | — | 4.00% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 3.50% | — | 3.75% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | — | — | 3.90% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | Fed Reverse Repo Rate | — | — | 3.75% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr | — | — | 3.63% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr | — | — | 3.38% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs | — | — | 3.13% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs | — | — | 3.13% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | Federal Budget Balance | — | — | -$284.4b | — |
