Treasury yields are higher and steeper this morning ahead of Powell’s speech.
The 2-year is up 2.5 bps, while the 10-year is up 5 bps. Powell is slated to speak this afternoon at the New York Times DealBook Summit, and the market will be paying close attention in an attempt to glean any insight into the path of monetary policy. After 75 bps worth of rate cuts, traders will want to know how the Fed views the economy and inflation going forward.
Jobs data from ADP showed US companies added 146,000 jobs last month, lower than the median forecast of 150,000. The report’s details showed a mixed picture among industries, as education, health care, and construction posted the strongest gains while manufacturing had its largest drop in over a year. The ADP report comes ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls data, which is expected to show a gain of 218,000.
Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior |
| 12/04/24 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 2.80% | 6.30% |
| 12/04/24 | ADP Employment Change | 150k | 146k | 233k |
| 12/04/24 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 57 | — | 57 |
| 12/04/24 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 55.3 | — | 55.3 |
| 12/04/24 | ISM Services Index | 55.7 | — | 56 |
| 12/04/24 | ISM Services Prices Paid | 57 | — | 58.1 |
| 12/04/24 | ISM Services Employment | 53 | — | 53 |
| 12/04/24 | ISM Services New Orders | 56.6 | — | 57.4 |
| 12/04/24 | Factory Orders | 0.20% | — | -0.50% |
| 12/04/24 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.10% |
| 12/04/24 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.20% | — | 0.20% |
| 12/04/24 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.10% | — | 0.10% |
| 12/04/24 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | -0.20% | — | -0.20% |
| 12/04/24 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.20% |
| 12/04/24 | Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | |||
| 12/05/24 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 50.90% |
| 12/05/24 | Trade Balance | -$75.0b | — | -$84.4b |
| 12/05/24 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | — | 213k |
| 12/05/24 | Continuing Claims | 1904k | — | 1907k |
| 12/06/24 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 215k | — | 12k |
| 12/06/24 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -112k |
| 12/06/24 | Change in Private Payrolls | 203k | — | -28k |
| 12/06/24 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 30k | — | -46k |
| 12/06/24 | Unemployment Rate | 4.10% | — | 4.10% |
| 12/06/24 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% |
| 12/06/24 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.90% | — | 4.00% |
| 12/06/24 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 |
| 12/06/24 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.70% | — | 62.60% |
| 12/06/24 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.70% |
| 12/06/24 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 73.2 | — | 71.8 |
| 12/06/24 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 65.2 | — | 63.9 |
| 12/06/24 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 77.7 | — | 76.9 |
| 12/06/24 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.70% | — | 2.60% |
| 12/06/24 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.10% | — | 3.20% |
| 12/06/24 | Consumer Credit | $10.000b | — | $6.002b |
