Treasury yields are up 2-3 basis points along the whole curve following this morning’s round of new jobless data.
In a reverse of course, US Jobless claims fell to a three-year low the last week of November. Data suggest actual layoffs remain limited, helping with concerns about a downswing in the labor market. The full November Jobs report is slated for release on December 16th, after the next Fed meeting. As of now, the market is pricing in a 98% chance of a 25 bps rate cut on 12/10 when looking at Fed Funds Futures.
Kirby Hart
Associate
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 12/4/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | 48.00% | 23.50% | 175.30% | — |
| 12/4/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts Total | — | 71321 | 153074 | — |
| 12/4/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | 191k | 216k | 218k |
| 12/4/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | 214.75k | 223.75k | 224.25k |
| 12/4/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1963k | 1939k | 1960k | 1943k |
| 12/4/2025 | Factory Orders | 0.30% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 12/4/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/4/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 12/4/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.60% | — |
| 12/4/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 12/4/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 12/5/2025 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | — | — |
| 12/5/2025 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | — | — |
| 12/5/2025 | Real Personal Spending | 0.10% | — | — | — |
| 12/5/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | — | — |
| 12/5/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.80% | — | — | — |
| 12/5/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | — | — |
| 12/5/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.80% | — | — | — |
| 12/5/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 52 | — | 51 | — |
| 12/5/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 52.5 | — | 51.1 | — |
| 12/5/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 53 | — | 51 | — |
| 12/5/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.40% | — | 4.50% | — |
| 12/5/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.40% | — | 3.40% | — |
| 12/5/2025 | Consumer Credit | $10.480b | — | $13.093b | — |
| 12/05/2025-12/24/2025 | Leading Index | -0.30% | — | — | — |
| 12/8/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.24% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/12/2025 | Housing Starts | 1329k | — | 1307k | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | Personal Income | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/12/2025 | Building Permits | 1350k | — | 1330k | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | Personal Spending | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/12/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | 1.70% | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | Real Personal Spending | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/12/2025 | Building Permits MoM | 1.50% | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/12/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | New Home Sales | 718k | — | 800k | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | -10.30% | — | 20.50% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 3.80% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.90% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/9/2025 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | — | — | 98.2 | — |
| 12/9/2025 | BLS Releases Sept. & Oct. JOLTS Data | ||||
| 12/9/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | — | — |
| 12/9/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | — | — |
| 12/9/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | — | — |
| 12/9/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | — | — |
| 12/9/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | — | — |
| 12/9/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | — | — |
| 12/09/2025-12/31/2025 | Nonfarm Productivity | — | — | 3.30% | — |
| 12/09/2025-12/31/2025 | Unit Labor Costs | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -1.40% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | Employment Cost Index | 0.90% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 3.75% | — | 4.00% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 3.50% | — | 3.75% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | — | — | 3.90% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | Fed Reverse Repo Rate | — | — | 3.75% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr | — | — | 3.63% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr | — | — | 3.38% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs | — | — | 3.13% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs | — | — | 3.13% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 12/10/2025 | Federal Budget Balance | — | — | -$284.4b | — |
| 12/11/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 191k | — |
| 12/11/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 214.75k | — |
| 12/11/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1939k | — |
| 12/11/2025 | Trade Balance | -$63.2b | — | -$59.6b | — |
| 12/11/2025 | Exports MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/11/2025 | Imports MoM | — | — | -5.10% | — |
| 12/11/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | — | — |
| 12/11/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/11/2025 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $7086b | — |
