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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are up 2-4 basis points to start the day as some investors likely book profits ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report given the rally of the last two weeks.

Fed Chair Powell appeared to present a less dovish tone, saying the economy is “stronger than we thought it was going to be in September” when they announced a 50-basis point rate cut. He said that the recent string of stronger data affords the central bank to be “a little more cautious” in finding the neutral fed funds rate. For today’s data, initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 224,000 last week from 215,000 the prior week, still a relatively low level. For tomorrow, the median forecast for nonfarm payrolls is +215,000 and no change in the 4.1% headline unemployment rate.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
12/5/2024Challenger Job Cuts YoY—26.80%50.90%—
12/5/2024Trade Balance-$75.0b-$73.8b-$84.4b-$83.8b
12/5/2024Initial Jobless Claims215k224k213k215k
12/5/2024Continuing Claims1904k1871k1907k1896k
12/6/2024Change in Nonfarm Payrolls215k—12k—
12/6/2024Two-Month Payroll Net Revision——-112k—
12/6/2024Change in Private Payrolls203k—-28k—
12/6/2024Change in Manufact. Payrolls30k—-46k—
12/6/2024Unemployment Rate4.10%—4.10%—
12/6/2024Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%—0.40%—
12/6/2024Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.90%—4.00%—
12/6/2024Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3—34.3—
12/6/2024Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%—62.60%—
12/6/2024Underemployment Rate——7.70%—
12/6/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment73.2—71.8—
12/6/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions65.2—63.9—
12/6/2024U. of Mich. Expectations77.7—76.9—
12/6/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%—2.60%—
12/6/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.10%—3.20%—
12/6/2024Consumer Credit$10.000b—$6.002b—
12/9/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM——0.20%—
12/9/2024Wholesale Trade Sales MoM——0.30%—
12/9/2024NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations——2.87%—
12/10/2024NFIB Small Business Optimism94.1—93.7—
12/10/2024Nonfarm Productivity2.20%—2.20%—
12/10/2024Unit Labor Costs1.40%—1.90%—
12/11/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——2.80%—
12/11/2024CPI MoM0.20%—0.20%—
12/11/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%—0.30%—
12/11/2024CPI YoY2.70%—2.60%—
12/11/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.30%—3.30%—
12/11/2024CPI Index NSA315.342—315.664—
12/11/2024CPI Core Index SA——321.666—
12/11/2024Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——1.40%—
12/11/2024Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——1.40%—
12/11/2024Federal Budget Balance——-$257.5b—
12/12/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.00%0.30%
12/12/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM——0.00%0.30%
12/12/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%—0.20%—
12/12/2024PPI Final Demand YoY——2.40%—
12/12/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY——3.10%—
12/12/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——3.50%—
12/12/2024Initial Jobless Claims——224k—
12/12/2024Continuing Claims——1871k—
12/12/2024Household Change in Net Worth——$2760b—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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