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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are 2 basis points higher to start the day in quiet trading ahead of today’s data releases.

The September personal income and PCE report will be released later this morning. Core PCE is expected to have risen 0.2% m/m and 2.8% y/y. The preliminary December University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey results will also be released this morning, which are expected to show modest improvement in assessments of current conditions and forward expectations.

In Fed news, reports earlier this week suggested that President Trump could announce economic adviser Kevin Hasset as his nominee for the next Fed chair in the near future, but a Financial Times article reports that large bond investors and investment banks have expressed concerns to the US Treasury regarding Hassett’s ability to remain independent of the White House’s desires for interest rate policy. The Treasury solicited feedback from executives at several large market players on Hasset and the other four finalists for the position.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
12/5/2025Personal Income0.30%     —0.40%
12/5/2025Personal Spending0.30%     —0.60%
12/5/2025Real Personal Spending0.10%     —0.40%
12/5/2025PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.30%
12/5/2025PCE Price Index YoY2.80%     —2.70%
12/5/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM0.20%     —0.20%
12/5/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY2.80%     —2.90%
12/5/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment52     —51
12/5/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions52.1     —51.1
12/5/2025U. of Mich. Expectations52.7     —51
12/5/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.50%     —4.50%
12/5/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.40%     —3.40%
12/5/2025Consumer Credit$10.480b     —$13.093b
12/05/2025-12/24/2025Leading Index-0.30%     —     —
12/8/2025NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.24%
12/08/2025-12/12/2025Housing Starts1329k     —1307k
12/08/2025-12/31/2025Personal Income     —     —     —
12/08/2025-12/12/2025Building Permits1350k     —1330k
12/08/2025-12/31/2025Personal Spending     —     —     —
12/08/2025-12/12/2025Housing Starts MoM1.70%     —     —
12/08/2025-12/31/2025Real Personal Spending     —     —     —
12/08/2025-12/12/2025Building Permits MoM1.50%     —     —
12/08/2025-12/31/2025PCE Price Index MoM     —     —     —
12/08/2025-12/12/2025Construction Spending MoM0.10%     —0.20%
12/08/2025-12/31/2025PCE Price Index YoY     —     —     —
12/08/2025-12/31/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM     —     —     —
12/08/2025-12/20/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%     —0.30%
12/08/2025-12/31/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY     —     —     —
12/08/2025-12/20/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%     —0.10%
12/08/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales718k     —800k
12/08/2025-12/20/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM     —     —0.10%
12/08/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales MoM-10.30%     —20.50%
12/08/2025-12/20/2025PPI Final Demand YoY     —     —2.70%
12/08/2025-12/19/2025Export Price Index YoY     —     —3.80%
12/08/2025-12/20/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —2.60%
12/08/2025-12/20/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —2.90%
12/08/2025-12/19/2025Import Price Index MoM     —     —0.00%
12/08/2025-12/19/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.20%
12/08/2025-12/19/2025Import Price Index YoY     —     —0.30%
12/08/2025-12/19/2025Export Price Index MoM     —     —0.00%
12/9/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism98.2     —98.2
12/9/2025BLS Releases Sept. & Oct. JOLTS Data   
12/9/2025JOLTS Job Openings     —     —     —
12/9/2025JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —     —
12/9/2025JOLTS Quits Level     —     —     —
12/9/2025JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —     —
12/9/2025JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —     —
12/9/2025JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —     —
12/10/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.40%
12/10/2025Employment Cost Index0.90%     —0.90%
12/10/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —4.00%
12/10/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.75%
12/10/2025Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate     —     —3.90%
12/10/2025Fed Reverse Repo Rate     —     —3.75%
12/10/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr     —     —3.63%
12/10/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr     —     —3.38%
12/10/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs     —     —3.13%
12/10/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs     —     —3.13%
12/10/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run     —     —3.00%
12/10/2025Federal Budget Balance     —     —-$284.4b
12/11/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —191k
12/11/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —214.75k
12/11/2025Continuing Claims     —     —1939k
12/11/2025Trade Balance-$66.6b     —-$59.6b
12/11/2025Exports MoM     —     —0.10%
12/11/2025Imports MoM     —     —-5.10%
12/11/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —     —
12/11/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —0.10%
12/11/2025Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$7086b

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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