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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Nonfarm payrolls added 227,000 jobs in November, slightly more than expected, and the prior two months were revised higher by a total of 56,000 jobs.

Wage growth was also slightly hotter than expected, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% m/m and 4% y/y. The household survey painted a different picture. Household employment fell by 355,000 while the labor force shrunk by 193,000. This pushed the unemployment rate up 10 basis points to 4.2% (4.246% unrounded). The market is focusing more on the negative household survey, with front-end Treasury yields down 5-6 basis points in the initial reaction and fed funds futures now almost fully pricing a 25-basis point cut at the 12/18 FOMC meeting. Next week’s November CPI report will be the next critical data point for Fed leaders ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
12/6/2024Change in Nonfarm Payrolls220k227k12k36k
12/6/2024Two-Month Payroll Net Revision—56k-112k—
12/6/2024Change in Private Payrolls205k194k-28k-2k
12/6/2024Change in Manufact. Payrolls30k22k-46k-48k
12/6/2024Unemployment Rate4.10%4.20%4.10%—
12/6/2024Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.40%0.40%—
12/6/2024Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.90%4.00%4.00%—
12/6/2024Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.334.334.334.2
12/6/2024Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%62.50%62.60%—
12/6/2024Underemployment Rate—7.80%7.70%—
12/6/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment73.2—71.8—
12/6/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions65.2—63.9—
12/6/2024U. of Mich. Expectations77.7—76.9—
12/6/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%—2.60%—
12/6/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.10%—3.20%—
12/6/2024Consumer Credit$10.000b—$6.002b—
12/9/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM——0.20%—
12/9/2024Wholesale Trade Sales MoM——0.30%—
12/9/2024NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations——2.87%—
12/10/2024NFIB Small Business Optimism94.1—93.7—
12/10/2024Nonfarm Productivity2.20%—2.20%—
12/10/2024Unit Labor Costs1.40%—1.90%—
12/11/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——2.80%—
12/11/2024CPI MoM0.30%—0.20%—
12/11/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%—0.30%—
12/11/2024CPI YoY2.70%—2.60%—
12/11/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.30%—3.30%—
12/11/2024CPI Index NSA315.341—315.664—
12/11/2024CPI Core Index SA——321.666—
12/11/2024Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——1.40%—
12/11/2024Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——1.40%1.10%
12/11/2024Federal Budget Balance——-$257.5b—
12/12/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.00%0.30%
12/12/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM——0.00%0.30%
12/12/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%—0.20%—
12/12/2024PPI Final Demand YoY——2.40%—
12/12/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY——3.10%—
12/12/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——3.50%—
12/12/2024Initial Jobless Claims——224k—
12/12/2024Continuing Claims——1871k—
12/12/2024Household Change in Net Worth——$2760b—
12/13/2024Import Price Index MoM-0.30%—0.30%—
12/13/2024Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM——0.20%—
12/13/2024Import Price Index YoY——0.80%—
12/13/2024Export Price Index MoM-0.30%—0.80%—
12/13/2024Export Price Index YoY——-0.10%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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