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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are modestly higher on the front-end of the curve to start the week.

Activity should be relatively quiet as we approach Wednesday’s FOMC decision. Markets remain convinced that the Fed will move forward with another 25-basis point rate cut, which is fully priced into the fed futures market at this point. These expectations come despite the less dovish guidance from Fed Chair Powell following the October FOMC meeting and an increasingly cautious tone from a growing contingent of Fed leaders in the weeks that followed that meeting. There has still been a dearth of tier 1 economic data because of the prolonged government shutdown, and on Friday, the delayed September PCE report showed inflation rates in line with expectations at 0.3% m/m for headline PCE and 0.2% m/m for the core rate. The October JOLTS report will be released tomorrow morning.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
12/8/2025NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.24%
12/08/2025-12/12/2025Housing Starts1329k     —1307k
12/08/2025-12/24/2025Leading Index-0.30%     —     —
12/08/2025-12/31/2025Personal Income     —     —0.40%
12/08/2025-12/12/2025Building Permits1350k     —1330k
12/08/2025-12/31/2025Personal Spending     —     —0.30%
12/08/2025-12/12/2025Housing Starts MoM1.70%     —     —
12/08/2025-12/31/2025Real Personal Spending     —     —0.00%
12/08/2025-12/12/2025Building Permits MoM1.50%     —     —
12/08/2025-12/31/2025PCE Price Index MoM     —     —0.30%
12/08/2025-12/12/2025Construction Spending MoM0.10%     —0.20%
12/08/2025-12/31/2025PCE Price Index YoY     —     —2.80%
12/08/2025-12/31/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM     —     —0.20%
12/08/2025-12/20/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%     —0.30%
12/08/2025-12/31/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY     —     —2.80%
12/08/2025-12/20/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%     —0.10%
12/08/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales709k     —800k
12/08/2025-12/20/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM     —     —0.10%
12/08/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales MoM-11.40%     —20.50%
12/08/2025-12/20/2025PPI Final Demand YoY2.60%     —2.70%
12/08/2025-12/19/2025Export Price Index YoY     —     —3.80%
12/08/2025-12/20/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —2.60%
12/08/2025-12/20/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —2.90%
12/08/2025-12/19/2025Import Price Index MoM     —     —0.00%
12/08/2025-12/19/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.20%
12/08/2025-12/19/2025Import Price Index YoY     —     —0.30%
12/08/2025-12/19/2025Export Price Index MoM     —     —0.00%
12/9/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism98.3     —98.2
12/9/2025BLS Releases Sept. & Oct. JOLTS Data   
12/9/2025JOLTS Job Openings7125k     —     —
12/9/2025JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —     —
12/9/2025JOLTS Quits Level     —     —     —
12/9/2025JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —     —
12/9/2025JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —     —
12/9/2025JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —     —
12/10/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.40%
12/10/2025Employment Cost Index0.90%     —0.90%
12/10/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —4.00%
12/10/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.75%
12/10/2025Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.75%     —3.90%
12/10/2025Fed Reverse Repo Rate     —     —3.75%
12/10/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr3.63%     —3.63%
12/10/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr3.38%     —3.38%
12/10/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs3.13%     —3.13%
12/10/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs3.13%     —3.13%
12/10/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run3.13%     —3.00%
12/10/2025Federal Budget Balance-$185.0b     —-$284.4b
12/11/2025Initial Jobless Claims220k     —191k
12/11/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —214.75k
12/11/2025Continuing Claims1942k     —1939k
12/11/2025Trade Balance-$62.8b     —-$59.6b
12/11/2025Exports MoM     —     —0.10%
12/11/2025Imports MoM     —     —-5.10%
12/11/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%     —     —
12/11/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.40%     —0.10%
12/11/2025Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$7086b
12/15/2025Empire Manufacturing11.3     —18.7
12/15/2025NAHB Housing Market Index     —     —38
12/15/2025-12/31/2025JOLTS Job Openings     —     —     —
12/15/2025-12/31/2025JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —     —
12/15/2025-12/19/2025Building Permits     —     —     —
12/15/2025-12/31/2025JOLTS Quits Level     —     —     —
12/15/2025-12/31/2025JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —     —
12/15/2025-12/19/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
12/15/2025-12/26/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
12/15/2025-12/31/2025JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —     —
12/15/2025-12/26/2025Construction Spending MoM     —     —     —
12/15/2025-12/31/2025JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —     —
12/15/2025-12/31/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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