Treasury yields are modestly higher and steeper to start the week.
Global markets are assessing guidance from China’s Politburo of “moderately loose” monetary policy and “extraordinary counter-cyclical (fiscal) policy adjustment” in 2025. This would be the first time it has used the “moderately loose” characterization for monetary policy since 2010 as the country continues to deal with the economic fallout of a real estate crisis. In other news, Donald Trump said he would not attempt to oust Fed Chair Powell during an interview with NBC news over the weekend, dampening one potential source of disturbance for financial markets looking ahead to 2025. The market will be focusing on inflation this week, with the November CPI report to be released on Wednesday and the November PPI on Thursday. With Fed funds futures nearly fully priced for a 25 basis point cut on December 18, the general perception is that the bar is set fairly high for these reports to dissuade Fed leaders from moving forward with a cut, given recent Fedspeak.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 12/9/2024 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/9/2024 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/9/2024 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 2.87% | — |
| 12/10/2024 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 94.5 | — | 93.7 | — |
| 12/10/2024 | Nonfarm Productivity | 2.20% | — | 2.20% | — |
| 12/10/2024 | Unit Labor Costs | 1.50% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 12/11/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 2.80% | — |
| 12/11/2024 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/11/2024 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/11/2024 | CPI YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 12/11/2024 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.30% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 12/11/2024 | CPI Index NSA | 315.34 | — | 315.664 | — |
| 12/11/2024 | CPI Core Index SA | 322.333 | — | 321.666 | — |
| 12/11/2024 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.40% | — |
| 12/11/2024 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 1.40% | 1.10% |
| 12/11/2024 | Federal Budget Balance | -$354.0b | — | -$257.5b | — |
| 12/12/2024 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/12/2024 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/12/2024 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/12/2024 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 12/12/2024 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.20% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 12/12/2024 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.50% | — |
| 12/12/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | — | 224k | — |
| 12/12/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1878k | — | 1871k | — |
| 12/12/2024 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $2760b | — |
| 12/13/2024 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/13/2024 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/13/2024 | Import Price Index YoY | 1.00% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 12/13/2024 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.20% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 12/13/2024 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 12/16/2024 | Empire Manufacturing | 3 | — | 31.2 | — |
| 12/16/2024 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 49.7 | — |
| 12/16/2024 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 56.1 | — |
| 12/16/2024 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.9 | — |
