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Author Jason Haley

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Both fixed income and equity markets are little changed to start the day as investors await tomorrow’s Fed decision.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose more than expected in November, with an increase in survey respondents expecting inflation-adjusted sales to be higher contributing most to the improvement. Another notable finding from the survey, the net percent of business owners raising average selling prices rose 13 points from the prior month to 34%, the highest reading since March 2023 and the largest monthly jump in the survey’s 51-year history. Later this morning, the JOLTS report for October will be released.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
12/9/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism98.39998.2
12/9/2025Leading Index-0.30%     —     —
12/9/2025BLS Releases Sept. & Oct. JOLTS Data   
12/9/2025JOLTS Job Openings7117k     —     —
12/9/2025JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —     —
12/9/2025JOLTS Quits Level3150k     —     —
12/9/2025JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —     —
12/9/2025JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —     —
12/9/2025JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —     —
12/08/2025-12/12/2025Housing Starts1329k     —1307k
12/08/2025-12/31/2025Personal Income     —     —0.40%
12/08/2025-12/12/2025Building Permits1350k     —1330k
12/08/2025-12/31/2025Personal Spending     —     —0.30%
12/08/2025-12/12/2025Housing Starts MoM1.70%     —     —
12/08/2025-12/31/2025Real Personal Spending     —     —0.00%
12/08/2025-12/12/2025Building Permits MoM1.50%     —     —
12/08/2025-12/31/2025PCE Price Index MoM     —     —0.30%
12/08/2025-12/12/2025Construction Spending MoM0.10%     —0.20%
12/08/2025-12/31/2025PCE Price Index YoY     —     —2.80%
12/08/2025-12/31/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM     —     —0.20%
12/08/2025-12/31/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY     —     —2.80%
12/08/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales709k     —800k
12/08/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales MoM-11.40%     —20.50%
12/10/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.40%
12/10/2025Employment Cost Index0.90%     —0.90%
12/10/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —4.00%
12/10/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.75%
12/10/2025Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.65%     —3.90%
12/10/2025Fed Reverse Repo Rate     —     —3.75%
12/10/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr3.63%     —3.63%
12/10/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr3.38%     —3.38%
12/10/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs3.13%     —3.13%
12/10/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs3.13%     —3.13%
12/10/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run3.13%     —3.00%
12/10/2025Federal Budget Balance-$205.0b     —-$284.4b
12/11/2025Initial Jobless Claims220k     —191k
12/11/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —214.75k
12/11/2025Continuing Claims1942k     —1939k
12/11/2025Trade Balance-$63.0b     —-$59.6b
12/11/2025Exports MoM     —     —0.10%
12/11/2025Imports MoM     —     —-5.10%
12/11/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%     —     —
12/11/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.40%     —0.10%
12/11/2025Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$7086b
12/15/2025Empire Manufacturing11.3     —18.7
12/15/2025NAHB Housing Market Index     —     —38
12/15/2025-12/31/2025JOLTS Job Openings     —     —     —
12/15/2025-12/31/2025JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —     —
12/15/2025-12/19/2025Building Permits     —     —     —
12/15/2025-12/31/2025JOLTS Quits Level     —     —     —
12/15/2025-12/31/2025JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —     —
12/15/2025-12/19/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
12/15/2025-12/26/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
12/15/2025-12/31/2025JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —     —
12/15/2025-12/26/2025Construction Spending MoM     —     —     —
12/15/2025-12/31/2025JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —     —
12/15/2025-12/31/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —     —
12/16/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls40k     —     —
12/16/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —     —
12/16/2025Change in Private Payrolls40k     —     —
12/16/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls-5k     —     —
12/16/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —     —
12/16/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —     —
12/16/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —     —
12/16/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —     —
12/16/2025Unemployment Rate4.40%     —     —
12/16/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —     —
12/16/2025Labor Force Participation Rate     —     —     —
12/16/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%     —0.20%
12/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%     —0.30%
12/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%     —0.10%
12/16/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —-0.10%
12/16/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-21.7
12/16/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —52.2
12/16/2025S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —54.1
12/16/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —54.2
12/16/2025Business Inventories     —     —0.00%

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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