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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are little changed in a quiet start to the week.

President Trump is threatening more tariffs, including 25% on all steel and aluminum imports and reciprocal tariffs affecting “everyone.” For now, the markets are being less reactive to the headlines and awaiting more clarity on the actual objectives of the administration’s tariff policies – real policy or negotiating tactics. In the meantime, the January CPI report will be released on Wednesday. Friday’s data showed further labor market strength and higher consumer inflation expectations, both which helped push back market pricing for the next Fed rate cut to September. The Bloomberg median forecast currently shows expectations for a 0.3% increase in core CPI in January, and a reading below that would likely quell at least some market anxiety about the current inflation trajectory.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/10/2025NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations——3.00%—
2/11/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism104.7—105.1—
2/12/2025MBA Mortgage Applications——2.20%—
2/12/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——1.00%1.20%
2/12/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——0.70%0.50%
2/12/2025Annual Revisions: CPI    
2/12/2025CPI MoM0.30%—0.40%—
2/12/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%—0.20%—
2/12/2025CPI YoY2.90%—2.90%—
2/12/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.10%—3.20%—
2/12/2025CPI Index NSA317.43—315.605—
2/12/2025CPI Core Index SA324.237—323.383—
2/12/2025Federal Budget Balance-$48.7b—-$86.7b—
2/13/2025Annual Revisions: PPI    
2/13/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%—0.20%—
2/13/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%—0.00%—
2/13/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%—0.10%—
2/13/2025PPI Final Demand YoY3.20%—3.30%—
2/13/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.30%—3.50%—
2/13/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——3.30%—
2/13/2025Initial Jobless Claims217k—219k—
2/13/2025Continuing Claims1888k—1886k—
2/14/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.10%—0.40%—
2/14/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%—0.40%—
2/14/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%—0.30%—
2/14/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.30%—0.70%—
2/14/2025Import Price Index MoM0.40%—0.10%—
2/14/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.00%—0.20%—
2/14/2025Import Price Index YoY1.90%—2.20%—
2/14/2025Export Price Index MoM0.30%—0.30%—
2/14/2025Export Price Index YoY——1.80%—
2/14/2025Industrial Production MoM0.30%—0.90%—
2/14/2025Capacity Utilization77.70%—77.60%—
2/14/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%—0.60%—
2/14/2025Business Inventories0.00%—0.10%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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