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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Rates are 2-5 basis points lower across the curve after December’s US retail sales data released this morning was unchanged compared to November.

Market participants may view this as a deceleration by the US consumer that could lead to a soft start in Q1 2026. All eyes will now shift to the delayed January jobs report on Wednesday and CPI on Friday. We’ll hear from two Fed leaders today, Hammack and Logan, both of which are likely to lean hawkish in tone.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/10/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism99.899.399.5     —
2/10/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —3.750k7.750k8.250k
2/10/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —5.000k3.750k     —
2/10/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —6.500k5.000k     —
2/10/2026Import Price Index MoM0.10%0.10%     —     —
2/10/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%0.40%     —     —
2/10/2026Import Price Index YoY0.10%0.00%0.10%-0.10%
2/10/2026Export Price Index MoM0.10%0.30%     —     —
2/10/2026Export Price Index YoY3.00%3.10%3.30%3.20%
2/10/2026Employment Cost Index0.80%0.70%0.80%     —
2/10/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%0.00%0.60%     —
2/10/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%0.00%0.50%0.40%
2/10/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.00%0.40%0.30%
2/10/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.40%-0.10%0.40%0.20%
2/10/2026Business Inventories0.20%     —0.30%     —
2/11/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-8.90%     —
2/11/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls68k     —50k     —
2/11/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-76k     —
2/11/2026Change in Private Payrolls70k     —37k     —
2/11/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls-7k     —-8k     —
2/11/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —-22k     —
2/11/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
2/11/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —3.80%     —
2/11/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2     —34.2     —
2/11/2026Unemployment Rate4.40%     —4.40%     —
2/11/2026Labor Force Participation Rate62.40%     —62.40%     —
2/11/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —8.40%     —
2/11/2026Final Benchmark Payrolls Revision-825k     —     —     —
2/11/2026Federal Budget Balance-$94.4b     —-$144.7b     —
2/12/2026Initial Jobless Claims224k     —231k     —
2/12/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —212.25k     —
2/12/2026Continuing Claims1850k     —1844k     —
2/12/2026Existing Home Sales4.16m     —4.35m     —
2/12/2026Existing Home Sales MoM-4.30%     —5.10%     —
2/13/2026Annual Revisions: CPI    
2/13/2026CPI MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
2/13/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
2/13/2026CPI YoY2.50%     —2.70%     —
2/13/2026Core CPI YoY2.50%     —2.60%     —
2/13/2026CPI Index NSA325.51     —324.054     —
2/13/2026Core CPI Index SA332.82     —331.86     —
2/13/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.10%     —
2/13/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —1.10%     —
2/17/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —6.500k     —
2/17/2026Empire Manufacturing7.4     —7.7     —
2/17/2026NAHB Housing Market Index     —     —37     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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