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Author Jason Haley

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The Treasury curve is bear steepening to start the day with long-end yields up 5 basis points.

Japan is out on holiday today, so lighter volumes overnight reacted to a strong French jobs report and bond issuance from multiple European countries. Additionally, President Trump announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports with no exceptions or exemptions. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell more than expected in January amid higher uncertainty about future economic conditions. While still above the long-run average, the net percentage of business owners expecting the economy to improve fell 5 points versus December to 47%, and 20% of respondents plan capital outlays in the next six months, down 7 points from the prior month. Later this morning, Fed Chair Powell will present his semiannual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/11/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism104.7102.8105.1—
2/12/2025MBA Mortgage Applications——2.20%—
2/12/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——1.00%1.20%
2/12/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——0.70%0.50%
2/12/2025Annual Revisions: CPI    
2/12/2025CPI MoM0.30%—0.40%—
2/12/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%—0.20%—
2/12/2025CPI YoY2.90%—2.90%—
2/12/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.10%—3.20%—
2/12/2025CPI Index NSA317.419—315.605—
2/12/2025CPI Core Index SA324.237—323.383—
2/12/2025Federal Budget Balance-$89.2b—-$86.7b—
2/13/2025Annual Revisions: PPI    
2/13/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%—0.20%—
2/13/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%—0.00%—
2/13/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%—0.10%—
2/13/2025PPI Final Demand YoY3.30%—3.30%—
2/13/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.30%—3.50%—
2/13/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——3.30%—
2/13/2025Initial Jobless Claims216k—219k—
2/13/2025Continuing Claims1882k—1886k—
2/14/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.20%—0.40%—
2/14/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%—0.40%—
2/14/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%—0.30%—
2/14/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.30%—0.70%—
2/14/2025Import Price Index MoM0.40%—0.10%—
2/14/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%—0.20%—
2/14/2025Import Price Index YoY1.90%—2.20%—
2/14/2025Export Price Index MoM0.30%—0.30%—
2/14/2025Export Price Index YoY——1.80%—
2/14/2025Industrial Production MoM0.30%—0.90%—
2/14/2025Capacity Utilization77.70%—77.60%—
2/14/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%—0.60%—
2/14/2025Business Inventories-0.10%—0.10%—
2/18/2025Empire Manufacturing-4—-12.6—
2/18/2025NAHB Housing Market Index——47—
2/18/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows——$79.0b—
2/18/2025Total Net TIC Flows——$159.9b—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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