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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

The labor market added twice as many jobs as expected in January, sending front-end Treasury yields early 10 basis points higher.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 jobs last month, the most since November 2024. The headline unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%, with a 528,000 increase in household employment outweighing a 387,000 increase in the official labor force. Wage growth also exceeded expectations, rising 0.4% m/m in January, and the average workweek increased to 34.3 hours. Year-over-year, wage growth held steady at 3.7%. The bond market reaction reflects reinforced expectations of the Fed being on hold for a prolonged period.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/11/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —-0.30%-8.90%     —
2/11/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls65k130k50k48k
2/11/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —-17k-76k     —
2/11/2026Change in Private Payrolls68k172k37k64k
2/11/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls-7k5k-8k     —
2/11/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —73k-22k-17k
2/11/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.40%0.30%0.10%
2/11/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%3.70%3.80%3.70%
2/11/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.234.334.2     —
2/11/2026Unemployment Rate4.40%4.30%4.40%     —
2/11/2026Labor Force Participation Rate62.40%62.50%62.40%     —
2/11/2026Underemployment Rate     —8.00%8.40%     —
2/11/2026Final Benchmark Payrolls Revision-825k-862k     —     —
2/11/2026Federal Budget Balance-$94.4b     —-$144.7b     —
2/12/2026Initial Jobless Claims224k     —231k     —
2/12/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —212.25k     —
2/12/2026Continuing Claims1850k     —1844k     —
2/12/2026Existing Home Sales4.16m     —4.35m     —
2/12/2026Existing Home Sales MoM-4.30%     —5.10%     —
2/13/2026Annual Revisions: CPI    
2/13/2026CPI MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
2/13/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
2/13/2026CPI YoY2.50%     —2.70%     —
2/13/2026Core CPI YoY2.50%     —2.60%     —
2/13/2026CPI Index NSA325.51     —324.054     —
2/13/2026Core CPI Index SA332.82     —331.86     —
2/13/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.10%1.00%
2/13/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —1.10%0.70%
2/17/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —6.500k     —
2/17/2026Empire Manufacturing7.4     —7.7     —
2/17/2026NAHB Housing Market Index     —     —37     —
2/18/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-0.30%     —
2/18/2026Census Releases Nov. and Dec. Housing Starts Data on Feb. 18    
2/18/2026Durable Goods Orders-1.80%     —5.30%     —
2/18/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.40%     —
2/18/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.40%     —
2/18/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.20%     —
2/18/2026Housing Starts1303k     —     —     —
2/18/2026Building Permits1415k     —     —     —
2/18/2026Housing Starts MoM4.60%     —     —     —
2/18/2026Building Permits MoM0.30%     —     —     —
2/18/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-16.1     —
2/18/2026Industrial Production MoM0.30%     —0.40%     —
2/18/2026Manufacturing (SIC) Production     —     —0.20%     —
2/18/2026Capacity Utilization76.40%     —76.30%     —
2/18/2026Leading Index     —     —-0.30%     —
2/18/2026FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —     —
2/18/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$212.0b     —
2/18/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$220.2b     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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