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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

An upside surprise for January CPI is fueling a selloff in benchmark yields this morning.

Headline CPI rose 0.5% m/m, fueled by a 1.1% increase in energy costs (gas +1.8%), and egg prices surged 15.2%, pushing food costs higher. The core measure rose 0.4% m/m versus expectations of a 0.3% increase. Core prices were pushed higher by shelter costs (+0.4% m/m), auto insurance costs (+2.0%), and used autos (+2.2%). On a year-over-year basis, headline CPI was up 3%, and core CPI was up 3.3%, both higher than the prior month and above expectations. This report certainly creates no added urgency for Fed leaders to ease interest rate policy in the coming months, although things can quickly change if policymakers remain more reactive to shorter-term data trends. Treasury yields are up 8-10 basis points in the initial reaction, and fed funds futures are now pricing just one 25 basis point rate cut in December.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/12/2025MBA Mortgage Applications—2.30%2.20%—
2/12/2025Annual Revisions: CPI    
2/12/2025CPI MoM0.30%0.50%0.40%—
2/12/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.40%0.20%—
2/12/2025CPI YoY2.90%3.00%2.90%—
2/12/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.10%3.30%3.20%—
2/12/2025CPI Index NSA317.416317.671315.605—
2/12/2025CPI Core Index SA324.243324.739323.383323.296
2/12/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY—1.00%1.00%1.20%
2/12/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY—0.70%0.70%0.60%
2/12/2025Federal Budget Balance-$94.8b—-$21.9b—
2/13/2025Annual Revisions: PPI    
2/13/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%—0.20%—
2/13/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%—0.00%—
2/13/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%—0.10%—
2/13/2025PPI Final Demand YoY3.30%—3.30%—
2/13/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.30%—3.50%—
2/13/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY3.10%—3.30%—
2/13/2025Initial Jobless Claims216k—219k—
2/13/2025Continuing Claims1885k—1886k—
2/14/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.20%—0.40%—
2/14/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%—0.40%—
2/14/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%—0.30%—
2/14/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.30%—0.70%—
2/14/2025Import Price Index MoM0.40%—0.10%—
2/14/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%—0.20%—
2/14/2025Import Price Index YoY1.90%—2.20%—
2/14/2025Export Price Index MoM0.30%—0.30%—
2/14/2025Export Price Index YoY1.40%—1.80%—
2/14/2025Industrial Production MoM0.30%—0.90%—
2/14/2025Capacity Utilization77.70%—77.60%—
2/14/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%—0.60%—
2/14/2025Business Inventories-0.10%—0.10%—
2/18/2025Empire Manufacturing-1—-12.6—
2/18/2025NAHB Housing Market Index47—47—
2/18/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows——$79.0b—
2/18/2025Total Net TIC Flows——$159.9b—
2/19/2025MBA Mortgage Applications——2.30%—
2/19/2025Housing Starts1397k—1499k—
2/19/2025Housing Starts MoM-6.80%—15.80%—
2/19/2025Building Permits1448k—1482k—
2/19/2025Building Permits MoM-2.30%—-0.70%—
2/19/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity——-5.6—
2/19/2025FOMC Meeting Minutes————

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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