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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are moderately lower following a very quiet overnight session.

The day should remain relatively uneventful, serving effectively as an intermission between the release of the January jobs report (yesterday) and the January CPI report (tomorrow). Yesterday’s report positively exceeded expectations across the board, and an above-expectations inflation report would cast even more doubt on Fed rate cuts anytime soon. Initial jobless claims fell less than expected to 227,000 last week, and the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits rose 21,000 from the prior week. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Fed Governor Stephen Miran will both speak at an event this evening hosted by the Dallas Fed.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/12/2026Initial Jobless Claims223k227k231k232k
2/12/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —219.50k212.25k212.50k
2/12/2026Continuing Claims1850k1862k1844k1841k
2/12/2026Existing Home Sales4.15m     —4.35m     —
2/12/2026Existing Home Sales MoM-4.60%     —5.10%     —
2/13/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —1.10%0.70%
2/13/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.10%1.00%
2/13/2026Annual Revisions: CPI    
2/13/2026CPI MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
2/13/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
2/13/2026CPI YoY2.50%     —2.70%     —
2/13/2026Core CPI YoY2.50%     —2.60%     —
2/13/2026CPI Index NSA325.51     —324.05     —
2/13/2026Core CPI Index SA332.82     —331.86     —
2/17/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —6.500k     —
2/17/2026Empire Manufacturing7.4     —7.7     —
2/17/2026NAHB Housing Market Index     —     —37     —
2/18/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-0.30%     —
2/18/2026Census Releases Nov. and Dec. Housing Starts Data on Feb. 18    
2/18/2026Durable Goods Orders-1.90%     —5.30%     —
2/18/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.30%     —0.40%     —
2/18/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.40%     —
2/18/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.20%     —
2/18/2026Housing Starts1310k     —     —     —
2/18/2026Building Permits1420k     —     —     —
2/18/2026Housing Starts MoM5.10%     —     —     —
2/18/2026Building Permits MoM0.60%     —     —     —
2/18/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-16.1     —
2/18/2026Industrial Production MoM0.40%     —0.40%     —
2/18/2026Manufacturing (SIC) Production     —     —0.20%     —
2/18/2026Capacity Utilization76.40%     —76.30%     —
2/18/2026Leading Index     —     —-0.30%     —
2/18/2026FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —     —
2/18/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$212.0b     —
2/18/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$220.2b     —
2/19/2026Advance Goods Trade Balance-$87.6b     —     —-$84.7b
2/19/2026Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —     —     —
2/19/2026Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —     —     —
2/19/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.20%     —
2/19/2026Retail Inventories MoM     —     —     —     —
2/19/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook6.4     —12.6     —
2/19/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —227k     —
2/19/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —219.50k     —
2/19/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1862k     —
2/19/2026Trade Balance-$55.8b     —-$56.8b     —
2/19/2026Exports MoM     —     —-3.60%     —
2/19/2026Imports MoM     —     —5.00%     —
2/19/2026Pending Home Sales MoM     —     —-9.30%     —
2/19/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —-1.30%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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