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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are sharply higher following an upside surprise from the January CPI report.

Both headline and core CPI surpassed expectations, rising 0.3% m/m and 0.4% m/m, respectively. It was the highest monthly core CPI reading in 8 months, and on a year-over-year basis, core CPI held steady at 3.9% versus consensus expectations of a decline to 3.7%. Services inflation was up 0.7% for the month, and core services excluding rent/OER (aka ‘supercore’) surged 0.85% versus a 0.35% gain the prior month. This is the biggest jump in the supercore category since September 2022. With a March cut now off the table, the market is now pricing down odds of a rate cut at the May 1 FOMC meeting as well.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/13/2024NFIB Small Business Optimism92.389.991.9—
2/13/2024CPI MoM0.20%0.30%0.30%0.20%
2/13/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.40%0.30%—
2/13/2024CPI YoY2.90%3.10%3.40%—
2/13/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.70%3.90%3.90%—
2/13/2024CPI Index NSA308.014308.417306.746—
2/13/2024CPI Core Index SA314.084314.438313.216313.209
2/13/2024Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY—-0.10%0.50%0.70%
2/13/2024Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY—1.40%0.80%1.00%
2/14/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——3.70%—
2/14/2024Revisions: PPI
2/15/2024Empire Manufacturing-12.5—-43.7—
2/15/2024Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.20%—0.60%—
2/15/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%—0.40%—
2/15/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%—0.60%—
2/15/2024Retail Sales Control Group0.20%—0.80%—
2/15/2024Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-8.2—-10.6—
2/15/2024Import Price Index MoM0.00%—0.00%—
2/15/2024Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.00%—0.00%—
2/15/2024Import Price Index YoY-1.30%—-1.60%—
2/15/2024Export Price Index MoM-0.20%—-0.90%—
2/15/2024Export Price Index YoY——-3.20%—
2/15/2024Initial Jobless Claims220k—218k—
2/15/2024Continuing Claims1880k—1871k—
2/15/2024Industrial Production MoM0.20%—0.10%—
2/15/2024Capacity Utilization78.80%—78.60%—
2/15/2024Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.00%—0.10%—
2/15/2024Business Inventories0.40%—-0.10%—
2/15/2024NAHB Housing Market Index46—44—
2/15/2024Total Net TIC Flows——$260.2b—
2/15/2024Net Long-term TIC Flows——$126.1b—
2/16/2024Housing Starts1455k—1460k—
2/16/2024Housing Starts MoM-0.30%—-4.30%—
2/16/2024Building Permits1515k—1495k1493k
2/16/2024Building Permits MoM1.50%—1.90%1.80%
2/16/2024New York Fed Services Business Activity——-9.7—
2/16/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%—-0.10%—
2/16/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.10%—0.00%—
2/16/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.10%—0.20%—
2/16/2024PPI Final Demand YoY0.60%—1.00%—
2/16/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.60%—1.80%—
2/16/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——2.50%—
2/16/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment80—79—
2/16/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions82—81.9—
2/16/2024U. of Mich. Expectations76—77.1—
2/16/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%—2.90%—
2/16/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%—2.90%—
2/20/2024Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity——-3.7—
2/20/2024Leading Index-0.30%—-0.10%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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