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Author Jason Haley

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Reports that President Trump will sign an order for reciprocal tariffs today fueled a rally in Treasuries overnight, with yields down 4-5 basis points across the curve this morning.

There have been few, if any, details provided on how these tariffs might be structured other than they are intended to match any tariffs other countries have placed on U.S. exports. The January PPI report was generally in line with expectations, but some of the sub-components of the index that can foreshadow the PCE report later this month were softer than expected (i.e., less worrisome than some expected). Initial jobless claims fell 7,000 last week to 216,000, still a relatively tame figure.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/13/2025Annual Revisions: PPI    
2/13/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%0.40%0.20%0.50%
2/13/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.30%0.00%0.40%
2/13/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.30%0.10%0.40%
2/13/2025PPI Final Demand YoY3.30%3.50%3.30%3.50%
2/13/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.30%3.60%3.50%3.70%
2/13/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY3.10%3.40%3.30%3.50%
2/13/2025Initial Jobless Claims216k213k219k220k
2/13/2025Continuing Claims1882k1850k1886k—
2/14/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.20%—0.40%—
2/14/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%—0.40%—
2/14/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%—0.30%—
2/14/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.30%—0.70%—
2/14/2025Import Price Index MoM0.40%—0.10%—
2/14/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%—0.20%—
2/14/2025Import Price Index YoY1.90%—2.20%—
2/14/2025Export Price Index MoM0.30%—0.30%—
2/14/2025Export Price Index YoY1.40%—1.80%—
2/14/2025Industrial Production MoM0.30%—0.90%—
2/14/2025Capacity Utilization77.70%—77.60%—
2/14/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%—0.60%—
2/14/2025Business Inventories-0.10%—0.10%—
2/18/2025Empire Manufacturing-1—-12.6—
2/18/2025NAHB Housing Market Index47—47—
2/18/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows——$79.0b—
2/18/2025Total Net TIC Flows——$159.9b—
2/19/2025MBA Mortgage Applications——2.30%—
2/19/2025Housing Starts1394k—1499k—
2/19/2025Housing Starts MoM-7.00%—15.80%—
2/19/2025Building Permits1448k—1482k—
2/19/2025Building Permits MoM-2.30%—-0.70%—
2/19/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity——-5.6—
2/19/2025FOMC Meeting Minutes————
2/20/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook25.4—44.3—
2/20/2025Initial Jobless Claims——213k—
2/20/2025Continuing Claims——1850k—
2/20/2025Leading Index0.00%—-0.10%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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