Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are moving lower following the release of a tamer than expected inflation report.

Headline CPI rose 0.2% m/m in January versus expectations of a 0.3% increase, and the core reading came in as expected at 0.3% m/m. January is known for upside surprises in the core CPI rate, and if there was going to be a miss in this report, many figured it would be an upside miss (a higher inflation rate). On a year-over-year basis, the headline rate fell more than expected to 2.4%, and the core rate fell 10 bps to 2.5%, as expected. Softer housing/shelter inflation readings and a 1.8% decline in used car prices were notable factors, and in the initial read, there still doesn’t appear to be a material impact of tariffs in overall goods inflation.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/13/2026Annual Revisions: CPI    
2/13/2026CPI MoM0.30%0.20%0.30%     —
2/13/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%0.30%0.20%     —
2/13/2026CPI YoY2.50%2.40%2.70%     —
2/13/2026Core CPI YoY2.50%2.50%2.60%     —
2/13/2026CPI Index NSA325.51325.25324.05     —
2/13/2026Core CPI Index SA332.78332.79331.86331.81
2/13/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —1.20%1.10%1.00%
2/13/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —1.90%1.10%0.70%
2/17/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —6.500k     —
2/17/2026Empire Manufacturing8.7     —7.7     —
2/17/2026NAHB Housing Market Index     —     —37     —
2/18/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-0.30%     —
2/18/2026Census Releases Nov. and Dec. Housing Starts Data on Feb. 18    
2/18/2026Durable Goods Orders-1.70%     —5.30%     —
2/18/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.30%     —0.40%     —
2/18/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.40%     —
2/18/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.20%     —
2/18/2026Housing Starts1325k     —     —     —
2/18/2026Building Permits1420k     —     —     —
2/18/2026Housing Starts MoM6.30%     —     —     —
2/18/2026Building Permits MoM0.60%     —     —     —
2/18/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-16.1     —
2/18/2026Industrial Production MoM0.40%     —0.40%     —
2/18/2026Manufacturing (SIC) Production     —     —0.20%     —
2/18/2026Capacity Utilization76.50%     —76.30%     —
2/18/2026Leading Index     —     —-0.30%     —
2/18/2026FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —     —
2/18/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$212.0b     —
2/18/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$220.2b     —
2/19/2026Advance Goods Trade Balance-$85.1b     —     —-$84.7b
2/19/2026Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —     —     —
2/19/2026Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —     —     —
2/19/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.20%     —
2/19/2026Retail Inventories MoM     —     —     —     —
2/19/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook7.7     —12.6     —
2/19/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —227k     —
2/19/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —219.50k     —
2/19/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1862k     —
2/19/2026Trade Balance-$55.5b     —-$56.8b     —
2/19/2026Exports MoM     —     —-3.60%     —
2/19/2026Imports MoM     —     —5.00%     —
2/19/2026Pending Home Sales MoM2.50%     —-9.30%     —
2/19/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —-1.30%     —
2/20/2026Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey    
2/20/2026Personal Income0.30%     —0.30%     —
2/20/2026Personal Spending0.40%     —0.50%0.50%
2/20/2026Real Personal Spending     —     —0.30%0.30%
2/20/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
2/20/2026PCE Price Index YoY2.80%     —2.80%     —
2/20/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
2/20/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY2.90%     —2.80%     —
2/20/2026GDP Annualized QoQ2.80%     —4.40%     —
2/20/2026Personal Consumption     —     —3.50%     —
2/20/2026GDP Price Index     —     —3.80%     —
2/20/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ     —     —2.90%     —
2/20/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —52.4     —
2/20/2026S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —52.7     —
2/20/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —53     —
2/20/2026Census Releases Nov. and Dec. New Home Sales Data on Feb. 20    
2/20/2026New Home Sales735k     —     —     —
2/20/2026New Home Sales MoM-0.30%     —     —     —
2/20/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment56.9     —57.3     —
2/20/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —58.3     —
2/20/2026U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —56.6     —
2/20/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —3.50%     —
2/20/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.40%     —
2/20/2026Building Permits     —     —     —     —
2/20/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —     —     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.