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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields have turned 5-6 basis points lower following the release of a weaker than expected January retail sales report.

Headline sales fell 0.9% m/m (-0.2% expected), and the retail sales control group, used in the GDP calculation, fell 0.8% m/m (+0.3% expected). It was a big miss, but softening the blow somewhat were upward revisions to the prior month’s data. Reciprocal tariffs were not immediately imposed yesterday, which sparked a relief rally in risk assets, but President Trump ordered all agencies to explore the measures and make recommendations by April 1.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/14/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.20%-0.90%0.40%0.70%
2/14/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%-0.40%0.40%0.70%
2/14/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%-0.50%0.30%0.50%
2/14/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.30%-0.80%0.70%0.80%
2/14/2025Import Price Index MoM0.40%0.30%0.10%0.20%
2/14/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%0.10%0.20%—
2/14/2025Import Price Index YoY1.90%1.90%2.20%2.30%
2/14/2025Export Price Index MoM0.30%1.30%0.30%0.50%
2/14/2025Export Price Index YoY1.40%2.70%1.80%2.00%
2/14/2025Industrial Production MoM0.30%—0.90%—
2/14/2025Capacity Utilization77.70%—77.60%—
2/14/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%—0.60%—
2/14/2025Business Inventories-0.10%—0.10%—
2/18/2025Empire Manufacturing-1—-12.6—
2/18/2025NAHB Housing Market Index47—47—
2/18/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows——$79.0b—
2/18/2025Total Net TIC Flows——$159.9b—
2/19/2025MBA Mortgage Applications——2.30%—
2/19/2025Housing Starts1394k—1499k—
2/19/2025Housing Starts MoM-7.00%—15.80%—
2/19/2025Building Permits1448k—1482k—
2/19/2025Building Permits MoM-2.30%—-0.70%—
2/19/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity——-5.6—
2/19/2025FOMC Meeting Minutes————
2/20/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook25.4—44.3—
2/20/2025Initial Jobless Claims——213k—
2/20/2025Continuing Claims——1850k—
2/20/2025Leading Index0.00%—-0.10%—
2/21/2025Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey    
2/21/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI——51.2—
2/21/2025S&P Global US Services PMI——52.9—
2/21/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI——52.7—
2/21/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment——67.8—
2/21/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions——68.7—
2/21/2025U. of Mich. Expectations——67.3—
2/21/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——4.30%—
2/21/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——3.30%—
2/21/2025Existing Home Sales4.15m—4.24m—
2/21/2025Existing Home Sales MoM-2.10%—2.20%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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