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Author Jason Haley

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Negative economic headlines overseas and a softer than expected January retail sales report are fueling a 5-7 basis point decline in Treasury yields this morning.

Q4 GDP reports for Japan and the U.K. showing both countries slipping into recession territory in the second half of 2023. For Japan, the news was unexpected and allows Germany to surpass the country as the world’s third largest economy. Retail sales fell 0.8% in January versus expectations of a smaller 0.2% decline. The retail sales control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, fell 0.4% m/m versus an expected 0.2% increase, the biggest decline in the metric since March last year. Fed Governor Waller and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will be speaking at separate events later today. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said yesterday that the path back to 2% inflation “may be a bumpy one,” and he also suggested it’s premature to predict a soft landing for the U.S. economy.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/15/2024Empire Manufacturing-12.5-2.4-43.7—
2/15/2024Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.20%#####0.60%0.40%
2/15/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%#####0.40%—
2/15/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.20%#####0.60%—
2/15/2024Retail Sales Control Group0.20%#####0.80%—
2/15/2024Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-8.15.2-10.6—
2/15/2024Import Price Index MoM0.00%0.80%0.00%-0.70%
2/15/2024Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.00%0.60%0.00%—
2/15/2024Import Price Index YoY-1.30%#####-1.60%-2.40%
2/15/2024Export Price Index MoM-0.10%0.80%-0.90%-0.70%
2/15/2024Export Price Index YoY—#####-3.20%-2.90%
2/15/2024Initial Jobless Claims220k212k218k220k
2/15/2024Continuing Claims1880k1895k1871k1865k
2/15/2024Industrial Production MoM0.20%—0.10%—
2/15/2024Capacity Utilization78.80%—78.60%—
2/15/2024Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.00%—0.10%—
2/15/2024Business Inventories0.40%—-0.10%—
2/15/2024NAHB Housing Market Index46—44—
2/15/2024Total Net TIC Flows——$260.2b—
2/15/2024Net Long-term TIC Flows——$126.1b—
2/16/2024Housing Starts1458k—1460k—
2/16/2024Housing Starts MoM-0.20%—-4.30%—
2/16/2024Building Permits1514k—1495k1493k
2/16/2024Building Permits MoM1.40%—1.90%1.80%
2/16/2024New York Fed Services Business Activity——-9.7—
2/16/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%—-0.10%-0.20%
2/16/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.10%—0.00%-0.10%
2/16/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.10%—0.20%—
2/16/2024PPI Final Demand YoY0.60%—1.00%—
2/16/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.60%—1.80%—
2/16/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——2.50%—
2/16/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment80—79—
2/16/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions82.5—81.9—
2/16/2024U. of Mich. Expectations77—77.1—
2/16/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%—2.90%—
2/16/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%—2.90%—
2/20/2024Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity——-3.7—
2/20/2024Leading Index-0.30%—-0.10%—
2/21/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-2.30%—
2/21/2024FOMC Meeting Minutes————
2/22/2024Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index——-0.15-0.15
2/22/2024Initial Jobless Claims——212k—
2/22/2024Continuing Claims——1895k—
2/22/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI——50.7—
2/22/2024S&P Global US Services PMI——52.5—
2/22/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI——52—
2/22/2024Existing Home Sales3.97m—3.78m—
2/22/2024Existing Home Sales MoM4.90%—-1.00%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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