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Author Jason Haley

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A series of headlines are fueling a double-digit increase in Treasury yields to start the day.

In the U.K., retail sales surged 3.4% m/m in January, more than double expectations and the highest monthly growth rate since January 2021. Separately, the Bank of Japan is reportedly maintaining its intentions to end its negative interest rate policy despite the country’s economy slipping into recession in Q4. In the U.S., producer prices rose 0.3% in January, including a 0.5% m/m increase in core PPI (+0.1% expected). On a year-over-year basis, core PPI rose from 1.7% to 2% (1.6% expected). Housing starts fell 14.8% in January to a 1.47-million-unit annual pace. The decline was driven by a 36% decline in the more volatile multifamily sector (follows a 32% increase the prior month), and single-family starts fell 4.7% m/m. Single-family building permits, a more forward-looking metric, rose 1.6% in January.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/16/2024Housing Starts1460k1331k1460k1562k
2/16/2024Housing Starts MoM0.00%###########3.30%
2/16/2024Building Permits1512k1470k1495k1493k
2/16/2024Building Permits MoM1.30%-1.50%1.90%1.80%
2/16/2024New York Fed Services Business Activity—-7.3-9.7—
2/16/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%0.30%#####—
2/16/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.10%0.50%0.00%-0.10%
2/16/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.10%0.60%0.20%—
2/16/2024PPI Final Demand YoY0.60%0.90%1.00%—
2/16/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.60%2.00%1.80%1.70%
2/16/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY—2.60%2.50%2.60%
2/16/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment80—79—
2/16/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions82.5—81.9—
2/16/2024U. of Mich. Expectations77—77.1—
2/16/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%—2.90%—
2/16/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%—2.90%—
2/20/2024Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity——-3.7—
2/20/2024Leading Index#####—#####—
2/21/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——#####—
2/21/2024FOMC Meeting Minutes————
2/22/2024Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index——-0.15-0.15
2/22/2024Initial Jobless Claims——212k—
2/22/2024Continuing Claims——1895k—
2/22/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI50.1—50.7—
2/22/2024S&P Global US Services PMI52—52.5—
2/22/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI——52—
2/22/2024Existing Home Sales3.97m—3.78m—
2/22/2024Existing Home Sales MoM5.00%—#####—
2/23/2024Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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