News that the three-year war between Ukraine and Russia may come to an end following a meeting between US and Russian officials has sparked a risk on trade. S&P futures rose 0.3% while Treasuries sold off with yields up 2 to 3 bps across the curve. The market will be focusing on the Fed with two officials, Daly and Barr, who are slated to speak today, and the minutes from the most recent meeting are scheduled to come out tomorrow. This comes after Governor Waller stated that he supports keeping rates steady until the data shows more progress towards keeping inflation in check.
Hafizan Hamzah Senior Director, Investment Management Group
Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior 02/18/25 Empire Manufacturing 0 5.7 -12.6 02/18/25 NAHB Housing Market Index 46 — 47 02/18/25 Net Long-term TIC Flows — — $79.0b 02/18/25 Total Net TIC Flows — — $159.9b 02/19/25 MBA Mortgage Applications — — 2.30% 02/19/25 Housing Starts 1397k — 1499k 02/19/25 Housing Starts MoM -6.80% — 15.80% 02/19/25 Building Permits 1460k — 1482k 02/19/25 Building Permits MoM -1.50% — -0.70% 02/19/25 New York Fed Services Business Activity — — -5.6 02/19/25 FOMC Meeting Minutes — — — 02/20/25 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 20 — 44.3 02/20/25 Initial Jobless Claims 215k — 213k 02/20/25 Continuing Claims 1879k — 1850k 02/20/25 Leading Index -0.10% — -0.10% 02/21/25 Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey 02/21/25 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 51.2 — 51.2 02/21/25 S&P Global US Services PMI 53 — 52.9 02/21/25 S&P Global US Composite PMI — — 52.7 02/21/25 U. of Mich. Sentiment 67.8 — 67.8 02/21/25 U. of Mich. Current Conditions — — 68.7 02/21/25 U. of Mich. Expectations — — 67.3 02/21/25 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation — — 4.30% 02/21/25 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 3.30% 02/21/25 Existing Home Sales 4.13m — 4.24m 02/21/25 Existing Home Sales MoM -2.60% — 2.20%
Hafizan Hamzah Senior Director, Investment Management Group
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