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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are barely changed to start the day following a very quiet overnight trading session.

The MBA mortgage applications index rose 2.8% last week, boosted by a 7.1% increase in refinance applications. The increase in refi applications coincided with the lowest 5-year ARM contract rate (5.29%) since September 2022 and the lowest 15-year contract rate (5.50%) since September 2024, according to the MBA survey. In other economic news, durable goods orders exceeded expectations in December, including a solid 0.6% m/m increase in nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, typically referred to as core orders and a proxy for business investment. Additionally, the prior month’s core orders figure was revised higher from 0.4% to 0.8%. Following a weak first six months of 2025, core orders and shipments steadily improved in the second half of 2025.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/18/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —2.80%-0.30%     —
2/18/2026Housing Starts     —1322k1246k1272k
2/18/2026Housing Starts MoM     —3.90%-4.60%-4.20%
2/18/2026Durable Goods Orders-2.00%-1.40%5.30%5.40%
2/18/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.30%0.90%0.40%     —
2/18/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.30%0.60%0.40%0.80%
2/18/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%0.90%0.20%     —
2/18/2026Census Releases Nov. and Dec. Housing Starts Data on Feb. 18    
2/18/2026Building Permits1400k1448k1388k     —
2/18/2026Building Permits MoM0.40%4.30%-1.60%     —
2/18/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity-14.2-25.7-16.1     —
2/18/2026Housing Starts1304k1404k1322k     —
2/18/2026Housing Starts MoM1.10%6.20%3.90%     —
2/18/2026Industrial Production MoM0.40%     —0.40%     —
2/18/2026Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.40%     —0.20%     —
2/18/2026Capacity Utilization76.50%     —76.30%     —
2/18/2026FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —     —
2/18/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$212.0b     —
2/18/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$220.2b     —
2/19/2026Trade Balance-$55.5b     —-$56.8b     —
2/19/2026Imports MoM0.10%     —5.00%     —
2/19/2026Exports MoM0.10%     —-3.60%     —
2/19/2026Advance Goods Trade Balance-$86.0b     —     —-$84.7b
2/19/2026Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —     —     —
2/19/2026Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —     —     —
2/19/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.20%     —
2/19/2026Retail Inventories MoM0.20%     —     —     —
2/19/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook7.8     —12.6     —
2/19/2026Initial Jobless Claims225k     —227k     —
2/19/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —219.50k     —
2/19/2026Continuing Claims1860k     —1862k     —
2/19/2026Leading Index-0.30%     —-0.30%     —
2/19/2026Pending Home Sales MoM2.00%     —-9.30%     —
2/19/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY3.00%     —-1.30%     —
2/20/2026Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey    
2/20/2026Personal Income0.30%     —0.30%     —
2/20/2026Personal Spending0.40%     —0.50%0.50%
2/20/2026Real Personal Spending0.10%     —0.30%0.30%
2/20/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
2/20/2026PCE Price Index YoY2.80%     —2.80%     —
2/20/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
2/20/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY2.90%     —2.80%     —
2/20/2026GDP Annualized QoQ3.00%     —4.40%     —
2/20/2026Personal Consumption2.50%     —3.50%     —
2/20/2026GDP Price Index2.80%     —3.80%     —
2/20/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.60%     —2.90%     —
2/20/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52.3     —52.4     —
2/20/2026S&P Global US Services PMI53     —52.7     —
2/20/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI53     —53     —
2/20/2026Census Releases Nov. and Dec. New Home Sales Data on Feb. 20    
2/20/2026New Home Sales730k     —     —     —
2/20/2026New Home Sales MoM     —     —     —     —
2/20/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment57.2     —57.3     —
2/20/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions57     —58.3     —
2/20/2026U. of Mich. Expectations56.5     —56.6     —
2/20/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.50%     —3.50%     —
2/20/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.40%     —3.40%     —
2/20/2026Building Permits     —     —1448k     —
2/20/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —4.30%     —
2/23/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —-0.04     —
2/23/2026Factory Orders     —     —2.70%     —
2/23/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —-1.40%     —
2/23/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —0.20%     —
2/23/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.90%     —
2/23/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.60%     —
2/23/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.90%     —
2/23/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —-1.2     —
2/24/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —10.250k     —
2/24/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-4.2     —
2/24/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —0.60%     —
2/24/2026House Price Purchase Index QoQ     —     —0.20%     —
2/24/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —0.47%     —
2/24/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —1.39%     —
2/24/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.36%     —
2/24/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-6     —
2/24/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-6     —
2/24/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence87.8     —84.5     —
2/24/2026Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —113.7     —
2/24/2026Conf. Board Expectations     —     —65.1     —
2/24/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —     —     —
2/24/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —1.30%     —
2/24/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —2.7     —
2/25/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —2.80%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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