Treasury yields are drifting higher and steeper this morning as markets react to another tariff threat.
President Trump said his administration would likely impose levies of 25% on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports as soon as April 2. Equity futures point to a lower open for U.S. stocks an hour ahead of the open. Mortgage applications fell 6.6% last week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Purchase applications fell 5.9% while refinance applications were down 7.3% week-over-week. The MBA survey showed the average 30-year conventional contract rate falling 2 basis points from the prior week to 6.93%. In other housing news, housing starts fell more than expected in January, down 9.8% m/m to a 1.37-million-unit annual pace. Single-family starts were down 8.4% while multifamily starts fell 13.5%. Building permits were essentially flat m/m versus expectations of a 1.5% decline. Later today, the minutes of the January 29 FOMC meeting will be released, which may provide a little more nuance to the changes in the official statement for that meeting, which included changes to the outlooks for the labor market and inflation.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 2/19/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -6.60% | 2.30% | — |
| 2/19/2025 | Housing Starts | 1390k | 1366k | 1499k | 1515k |
| 2/19/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | -7.30% | -9.80% | 15.80% | 16.10% |
| 2/19/2025 | Building Permits | 1460k | 1483k | 1482k | — |
| 2/19/2025 | Building Permits MoM | -1.50% | 0.10% | -0.70% | — |
| 2/19/2025 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | -10.5 | -5.6 | — |
| 2/19/2025 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 2/20/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 15 | — | 44.3 | — |
| 2/20/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | — | 213k | — |
| 2/20/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1868k | — | 1850k | — |
| 2/20/2025 | Leading Index | -0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 2/21/2025 | Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 2/21/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 51.3 | — | 51.2 | — |
| 2/21/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 53 | — | 52.9 | — |
| 2/21/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 53.3 | — | 52.7 | — |
| 2/21/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 67.8 | — | 67.8 | — |
| 2/21/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 68.7 | — |
| 2/21/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 67.3 | — |
| 2/21/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.30% | — | 4.30% | — |
| 2/21/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.30% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 2/21/2025 | Existing Home Sales | 4.13m | — | 4.24m | — |
| 2/21/2025 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2.60% | — | 2.20% | — |
| 2/24/2025 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | 0.15 | — |
| 2/24/2025 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | 14.1 | — |
| 2/25/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -9.1 | — |
| 2/25/2025 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 2/25/2025 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 2/25/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | 0.41% | — |
| 2/25/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 4.33% | — |
| 2/25/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 3.75% | — |
| 2/25/2025 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 103.5 | — | 104.1 | — |
| 2/25/2025 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 134.3 | — |
| 2/25/2025 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 83.9 | — |
| 2/25/2025 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | -4 | — |
| 2/25/2025 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | 7 | — |
| 2/25/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | 7.4 | — |
| 2/26/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -6.60% | — |
| 2/26/2025 | New Home Sales | 684k | — | 698k | — |
| 2/26/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | -2.00% | — | 3.60% | — |
| 2/26/2025 | Building Permits | — | — | 1483k | — |
| 2/26/2025 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
