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Author Kirby Hart

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are higher by around 1-2 bps across the curve.

The 10-year yield currently sits at 4.10%. Tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on investors, with equity futures pointing to a lower open today. On the economic data front, US jobless claims declined by 23,000 to 206,000 last week, below the median forecast of 225,000. Though continuing claims continue to rise, which is a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits. FED minutes were released yesterday and signaled some level of concern about inflation. Fed funds futures still currently price in 2 rate cuts for 2026, with the first coming in the summer.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
2/19/2026Trade Balance-$55.5b-$70.3b-$56.8b
2/19/2026Imports MoM0.10%3.60%5.00%
2/19/2026Exports MoM0.10%-1.70%-3.60%
2/19/2026Advance Goods Trade Balance-$86.0b-$98.5b-$86.0b
2/19/2026Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —3.80%6.50%
2/19/2026Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —-3.00%-5.70%
2/19/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%
2/19/2026Retail Inventories MoM0.10%0.00%-0.10%
2/19/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook7.516.312.6
2/19/2026Initial Jobless Claims225k206k227k
2/19/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —219.00k219.50k
2/19/2026Continuing Claims1860k1869k1862k
2/19/2026Leading Index-0.20%     —-0.30%
2/19/2026Pending Home Sales MoM2.00%     —-9.30%
2/19/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY2.30%     —-1.30%
2/20/2026Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey   
2/20/2026Personal Income0.30%     —0.30%
2/20/2026Personal Spending0.30%     —0.50%
2/20/2026Real Personal Spending0.10%     —0.30%
2/20/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.20%
2/20/2026PCE Price Index YoY2.80%     —2.80%
2/20/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.20%
2/20/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY2.90%     —2.80%
2/20/2026GDP Annualized QoQ3.00%     —4.40%
2/20/2026Personal Consumption2.40%     —3.50%
2/20/2026GDP Price Index2.80%     —3.80%
2/20/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.60%     —2.90%
2/20/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52.3     —52.4
2/20/2026S&P Global US Services PMI53     —52.7
2/20/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI53     —53
2/20/2026Census Releases Nov. and Dec. New Home Sales Data on Feb. 20   
2/20/2026New Home Sales730k     —     —
2/20/2026New Home Sales MoM0.00%     —     —
2/20/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment57.2     —57.3
2/20/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions57     —58.3
2/20/2026U. of Mich. Expectations56.5     —56.6
2/20/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.50%     —3.50%
2/20/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.40%     —3.40%
2/20/2026Building Permits     —     —1448k
2/20/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —4.30%
2/23/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —-0.04
2/23/2026Factory Orders1.00%     —2.70%
2/23/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —-1.40%
2/23/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —0.20%
2/23/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.90%
2/23/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.60%
2/23/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.90%
2/23/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —-1.2
2/24/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —10.250k
2/24/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-4.2
2/24/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —0.60%
2/24/2026House Price Purchase Index QoQ     —     —0.20%
2/24/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —0.47%
2/24/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —1.39%
2/24/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.36%
2/24/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-6
2/24/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-6
2/24/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence87.5     —84.5
2/24/2026Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —113.7
2/24/2026Conf. Board Expectations     —     —65.1
2/24/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.20%
2/24/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —1.30%
2/24/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —2.7
2/25/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —2.80%
2/26/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —206k
2/26/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —219.00k
2/26/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1869k
2/26/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity     —     —0

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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