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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Long-end Treasury yields are modestly lower in a continuation of yesterday’s trade following the release of the January 29 FOMC minutes.

The minutes revealed a discussion of slowing down or pausing the reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet while Congress works to extend the debt ceiling to minimize potential market disruptions. Also contributing to the curve flattening trade is comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent, who said this morning that extending the duration of Treasury debt issuance is “a long way off” and will depend on market appetite and the Fed’s balance sheet reduction plans. Initial jobless claims rose to 219,000 last week, up 5,000 from the prior week.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/20/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook14.318.144.3—
2/20/2025Initial Jobless Claims215k219k213k214k
2/20/2025Continuing Claims1868k1869k1850k1845k
2/20/2025Leading Index-0.10%—-0.10%—
2/21/2025Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey    
2/21/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI51.4—51.2—
2/21/2025S&P Global US Services PMI53—52.9—
2/21/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI53.2—52.7—
2/21/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment67.8—67.8—
2/21/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions——68.7—
2/21/2025U. of Mich. Expectations——67.3—
2/21/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.30%—4.30%—
2/21/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%—3.30%—
2/21/2025Existing Home Sales4.13m—4.24m—
2/21/2025Existing Home Sales MoM-2.60%—2.20%—
2/24/2025Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index——0.15—
2/24/2025Dallas Fed Manf. Activity——14.1—
2/25/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity——-9.1—
2/25/2025FHFA House Price Index MoM——0.30%—
2/25/2025House Price Purchase Index QoQ——0.70%—
2/25/2025S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA——0.41%—
2/25/2025S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA——4.33%—
2/25/2025S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA——3.75%—
2/25/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence103.5—104.1—
2/25/2025Conf. Board Present Situation——134.3—
2/25/2025Conf. Board Expectations——83.9—
2/25/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index——-4—
2/25/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions——7—
2/25/2025Dallas Fed Services Activity——7.4—
2/26/2025MBA Mortgage Applications——-6.60%—
2/26/2025New Home Sales680k—698k—
2/26/2025New Home Sales MoM-2.70%—3.60%—
2/26/2025Building Permits——1483k—
2/26/2025Building Permits MoM——0.10%—
2/27/2025GDP Annualized QoQ2.30%—2.30%—
2/27/2025Personal Consumption——4.20%—
2/27/2025GDP Price Index——2.20%—
2/27/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ——2.50%—
2/27/2025Durable Goods Orders1.20%—-2.20%—
2/27/2025Durables Ex Transportation0.20%—0.30%—
2/27/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%—0.40%—
2/27/2025Initial Jobless Claims——219k—
2/27/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——0.50%—
2/27/2025Continuing Claims——1869k—
2/27/2025Pending Home Sales MoM——-5.50%—
2/27/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoY——-2.90%—
2/27/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity——-5—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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