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Author Jason Haley

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Financial markets are assessing risks of potential military intervention in Iran and digesting multiple economic reports this morning.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that President Trump is considering a “limited military strike” on Iran in the coming days. Oil prices have risen to the highest level in six months in recent days in response, and the price of gold has moved back above $5,000 per ounce.

Personal income and spending were generally in line with expectations in December, but the PCE report showed core inflation rising 0.4% m/m, the hottest reading since last February. The initial estimate of Q4 GDP showed a 1.4% q/q (annualized) increase in topline growth versus expectations of a 2.8% gain. The government shutdown was the primary culprit for the softness, with government consumption reducing overall growth by 0.9%. Personal consumption was in line with expectations at a solid 2.4%, and business investment was up 3.8%, led by AI infrastructure buildout spending. The inflation measure within the GDP report was also hotter than expected.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/20/2026Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey    
2/20/2026Personal Income0.30%0.30%0.30%0.40%
2/20/2026Personal Spending0.30%0.40%0.50%0.40%
2/20/2026Real Personal Spending0.10%0.10%0.30%0.20%
2/20/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.30%0.40%0.20%     —
2/20/2026PCE Price Index YoY2.80%2.90%2.80%     —
2/20/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%0.40%0.20%     —
2/20/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY2.90%3.00%2.80%     —
2/20/2026GDP Annualized QoQ2.80%1.40%4.40%     —
2/20/2026Personal Consumption2.40%2.40%3.50%     —
2/20/2026GDP Price Index2.80%3.60%3.80%     —
2/20/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.60%2.70%2.90%     —
2/20/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52.4     —52.4     —
2/20/2026S&P Global US Services PMI53     —52.7     —
2/20/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI53.1     —53     —
2/20/2026Census Releases Nov. and Dec. New Home Sales Data on Feb. 20    
2/20/2026New Home Sales730k     —     —     —
2/20/2026New Home Sales MoM0.00%     —     —     —
2/20/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment57.3     —57.3     —
2/20/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions58     —58.3     —
2/20/2026U. of Mich. Expectations56.6     —56.6     —
2/20/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.50%     —3.50%     —
2/20/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.40%     —3.40%     —
2/20/2026Building Permits     —1455k1448k     —
2/20/2026Building Permits MoM     —4.80%4.30%     —
2/23/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —-0.04     —
2/23/2026Factory Orders1.00%     —2.70%     —
2/23/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —-1.40%     —
2/23/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —0.20%     —
2/23/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.90%     —
2/23/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.60%     —
2/23/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.90%     —
2/23/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —-1.2     —
2/24/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —10.250k     —
2/24/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-4.2     —
2/24/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.60%     —
2/24/2026House Price Purchase Index QoQ     —     —0.20%     —
2/24/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA0.30%     —0.47%     —
2/24/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —1.39%     —
2/24/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.36%     —
2/24/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-6     —
2/24/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-6     —
2/24/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence88     —84.5     —
2/24/2026Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —113.7     —
2/24/2026Conf. Board Expectations     —     —65.1     —
2/24/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.20%     —
2/24/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —1.30%     —
2/24/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —2.7     —
2/25/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —2.80%     —
2/26/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —206k     —
2/26/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —219.00k     —
2/26/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1869k     —
2/26/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity     —     —0     —
2/27/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%     —0.50%     —
2/27/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.70%     —
2/27/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM     —     —0.40%     —
2/27/2026PPI Final Demand YoY     —     —3.00%     —
2/27/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —3.30%     —
2/27/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —3.50%     —
2/27/2026MNI Chicago PMI52.5     —54     —
2/27/2026Census Releases Nov. and Dec. Construction Spending Data    
2/27/2026Construction Spending MoM0.30%     —     —     —
2/27/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —2     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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