Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasuries are extending yesterday’s Fed-induced selloff this morning with yields up 3-5 basis points across much of the curve.

Yesterday’s release of the January 31 FOMC minutes made clear that Fed officials were in no rush to pivot to rate cuts. While acknowledging that upside risks to inflation have diminished, some expressed concern that progress toward the Fed’s inflation target could stall. Recall that this meeting occurred prior to the release of the January jobs and inflation reports, both of which surprised to the upside. Hence, the 32 basis point increase in front-end Treasury yields since the release of the minutes yesterday afternoon. In broader financial markets, equity futures, particularly in the technology sector, are up sharply ahead of the open after chipmaker Nvidia announced a blowout sales forecast for the current quarter. NASDAQ futures are up more than 2% and S&P 500 futures more than 1.3% 45 minutes ahead of the market open.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/22/2024Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.21-0.3-0.150.02
2/22/2024Initial Jobless Claims216k201k212k213k
2/22/2024Continuing Claims1884k1862k1895k1889k
2/22/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI50.7—50.7—
2/22/2024S&P Global US Services PMI52.3—52.5—
2/22/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI51.8—52—
2/22/2024Existing Home Sales3.97m—3.78m—
2/22/2024Existing Home Sales MoM4.90%—-1.00%—
2/23/2024Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
2/26/2024New Home Sales680k—664k—
2/26/2024New Home Sales MoM2.40%—8.00%—
2/26/2024Dallas Fed Manf. Activity——-27.4—
2/27/2024Durable Goods Orders-5.00%—0.00%—
2/27/2024Durables Ex Transportation0.30%—0.50%—
2/27/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.10%—0.20%—
2/27/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——0.00%—
2/27/2024House Price Purchase Index QoQ——2.10%—
2/27/2024FHFA House Price Index MoM——0.30%—
2/27/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA——0.15%—
2/27/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA——5.40%—
2/27/2024S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA——5.14%—
2/27/2024Richmond Fed Manufact. Index——-15—
2/27/2024Conf. Board Consumer Confidence114.8—114.8—
2/27/2024Conf. Board Present Situation——161.3—
2/27/2024Conf. Board Expectations——83.8—
2/27/2024Richmond Fed Business Conditions——-3—
2/27/2024Dallas Fed Services Activity——-9.3—
2/28/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-10.60%—
2/28/2024GDP Annualized QoQ3.30%—3.30%—
2/28/2024Personal Consumption2.70%—2.80%—
2/28/2024GDP Price Index——1.50%—
2/28/2024Core PCE Price Index QoQ——2.00%—
2/28/2024Advance Goods Trade Balance-$88.6b—-$88.5b-$87.9b
2/28/2024Retail Inventories MoM——0.80%—
2/28/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM——0.40%—
2/29/2024Personal Income0.50%—0.30%—
2/29/2024Personal Spending0.20%—0.70%—
2/29/2024Real Personal Spending——0.50%—
2/29/2024PCE Deflator MoM0.30%—0.20%—
2/29/2024PCE Deflator YoY2.40%—2.60%—
2/29/2024PCE Core Deflator MoM0.40%—0.20%—
2/29/2024PCE Core Deflator YoY2.80%—2.90%—
2/29/2024Initial Jobless Claims——201k—
2/29/2024Continuing Claims——1862k—
2/29/2024MNI Chicago PMI——46—
2/29/2024Pending Home Sales MoM——8.30%—
2/29/2024Pending Home Sales NSA YoY——-1.00%—
2/29/2024Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity——-9—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.