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Author Kirby Hart

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Estimated

Treasury yields are 1-2 bps lower across the curve this morning.

The US Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs and the uncertainty around future American trade policy are still weighing on markets. S&P 500 futures point to a lower opening to start the week after all 3 major indexes ended in the green last week, following the volatility. Looking ahead to this week, FED Governor Waller speaks today at a conference, and Trump holds the State of the Union tomorrow night. As well, Nvidia has reported earnings after the close on Wednesday, which will be the marquee event to set the stage for technology stocks. We close the week with more inflation data, as the January PPI is released on Friday.

Kirby Hart
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
2/23/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.010.18-0.21
2/23/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —-0.21-0.04
2/23/2026Factory Orders-0.70%     —2.70%
2/23/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans0.30%     —0.20%
2/23/2026Durable Goods Orders-1.40%     —-1.40%
2/23/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.90%     —0.90%
2/23/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.60%     —0.60%
2/23/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.90%     —0.90%
2/23/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-0.8     —-1.2
2/24/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —10.250k
2/24/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-4.2
2/24/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.60%
2/24/2026House Price Purchase Index QoQ     —     —0.20%
2/24/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA0.30%     —0.47%
2/24/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA1.30%     —1.39%
2/24/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.36%
2/24/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-8     —-6
2/24/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-6
2/24/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence87     —84.5
2/24/2026Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —113.7
2/24/2026Conf. Board Expectations     —     —65.1
2/24/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.20%
2/24/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —1.30%
2/24/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —2.7
2/25/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —2.80%
2/26/2026Initial Jobless Claims216k     —206k
2/26/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —219.00k
2/26/2026Continuing Claims1855k     —1869k
2/26/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity     —     —0
2/27/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%     —0.50%
2/27/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.70%
2/27/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%     —0.40%
2/27/2026PPI Final Demand YoY2.60%     —3.00%
2/27/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.10%     —3.30%
2/27/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —3.50%
2/27/2026MNI Chicago PMI52.2     —54
2/27/2026Census Releases Nov. and Dec. Construction Spending Data   
2/27/2026Construction Spending MoM0.20%     —     —
2/27/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —2
3/2/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —51.2
3/2/2026ISM Manufacturing51.2     —52.6
3/2/2026ISM Prices Paid     —     —59
3/2/2026ISM New Orders     —     —57.1
3/2/2026ISM Employment     —     —48.1
3/02/2026-3/31/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM     —     —0.00%
3/02/2026-3/31/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM     —     —0.00%
3/02/2026-3/16/2026Business Inventories     —     —0.10%
3/02/2026-3/31/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas     —     —0.00%
3/02/2026-3/31/2026Retail Sales Control Group     —     —-0.10%

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

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