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Author Jason Haley

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Financial markets are a bit calmer this morning following yesterday’s risk-off move triggered by AI and tariff worries.

The AI-driven worries followed the release of a report from Citrini Research that painted a dire economic picture as it relates to unemployment and overall economic growth due to accelerated AI disruption over the next 2-3 years. The Treasury curve is bear flattening so far with front end yields up 2 basis points and the long end essentially unchanged. US equity index futures are unchanged to slightly higher following yesterday’s 1%+ selloff. Today’s data calendar includes December home price data from both the FHFA and S&P, and February consumer confidence data from the Conference Board will be released as well. A host of Fed leaders will speak today at separate events, including Governor Chris Waller.

Jason Haley
President & Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/24/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —12.750k10.250k11.500k
2/24/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity-6.8-17.3-4.2     —
2/24/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.60%     —
2/24/2026House Price Purchase Index QoQ     —     —0.20%     —
2/24/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA0.30%     —0.47%     —
2/24/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA1.30%     —1.39%     —
2/24/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.36%     —
2/24/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-5     —-6     —
2/24/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions-6     —-6     —
2/24/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence87.1     —84.5     —
2/24/2026Conf. Board Present Situation115.8     —113.7     —
2/24/2026Conf. Board Expectations68.6     —65.1     —
2/24/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.20%     —
2/24/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.20%     —1.30%     —
2/24/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —2.7     —
2/25/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —2.80%     —
2/26/2026Initial Jobless Claims216k     —206k     —
2/26/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —219.00k     —
2/26/2026Continuing Claims1855k     —1869k     —
2/26/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2     —0     —
2/27/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%     —0.50%     —
2/27/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.70%     —
2/27/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%     —0.40%     —
2/27/2026PPI Final Demand YoY2.60%     —3.00%     —
2/27/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.00%     —3.30%     —
2/27/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY3.50%     —3.50%     —
2/27/2026MNI Chicago PMI52.2     —54     —
2/27/2026Census Releases Nov. and Dec. Construction Spending Data    
2/27/2026Construction Spending MoM0.20%     —     —     —
2/27/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —2     —
3/2/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —51.2     —
3/2/2026ISM Manufacturing51.8     —52.6     —
3/2/2026ISM Prices Paid     —     —59     —
3/2/2026ISM New Orders     —     —57.1     —
3/2/2026ISM Employment     —     —48.1     —
3/02/2026-3/31/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM     —     —0.00%     —
3/02/2026-3/31/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM     —     —0.00%     —
3/02/2026-3/16/2026Business Inventories     —     —0.10%     —
3/02/2026-3/31/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas     —     —0.00%     —
3/02/2026-3/31/2026Retail Sales Control Group     —     —-0.10%     —
3/03/2026Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.11m     —14.85m     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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