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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are drifting higher in response to policy moves in Japan.

Prime Minister Takaichi announced two new Bank of Japan board members, both of whom are considered to be more “reflationary” biased. In other words, the potential for a more dovish central bank and higher Japanese bond yields in response to inflation concerns. Higher Japanese bond yields present competition for U.S. debt markets, particularly for Japanese investors (the largest foreign buyer of Treasuries). A few weeks ago, UBS analysts forecasted defaults in the private credit space to reach 13%, but they have now increased that estimate to 15% just a month later due to new concerns over “rapid, severe AI disruption.” It would seem a bit reactionary, but at the same time, everything in the AI news cycle is moving very fast. A primary source of overall market anxiety in recent weeks has been the threat of AI to software as a service (SaaS) business models, which has played out in equity markets and private credit alike.

Jason Haley
President & Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/25/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —0.40%2.80%     —
2/26/2026Initial Jobless Claims216k     —206k     —
2/26/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —219.00k     —
2/26/2026Continuing Claims1858k     —1869k     —
2/26/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2     —0     —
2/27/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%     —0.50%     —
2/27/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.70%     —
2/27/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%     —0.40%     —
2/27/2026PPI Final Demand YoY2.60%     —3.00%     —
2/27/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.00%     —3.30%     —
2/27/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY3.50%     —3.50%     —
2/27/2026MNI Chicago PMI52.1     —54     —
2/27/2026Census Releases Nov. and Dec. Construction Spending Data    
2/27/2026Construction Spending MoM0.20%     —     —     —
2/27/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity1     —2     —
3/2/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —51.2     —
3/2/2026ISM Manufacturing51.8     —52.6     —
3/2/2026ISM Prices Paid     —     —59     —
3/2/2026ISM New Orders     —     —57.1     —
3/2/2026ISM Employment     —     —48.1     —
3/02/2026-3/31/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM     —     —0.00%     —
3/02/2026-3/31/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM     —     —0.00%     —
3/02/2026-3/16/2026Business Inventories     —     —0.10%     —
3/02/2026-3/31/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas     —     —0.00%     —
3/02/2026-3/31/2026Retail Sales Control Group     —     —-0.10%     —
3/03/2026Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.11m     —14.85m     —
3/4/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —0.40%     —
3/4/2026ADP Employment Change43k     —22k     —
3/4/2026S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —52.3     —
3/4/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —52.3     —
3/4/2026ISM Services Index53.9     —53.8     —
3/4/2026ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —66.6     —
3/4/2026ISM Services New Orders     —     —53.1     —
3/4/2026ISM Services Employment     —     —50.3     —
3/4/2026Fed Releases Beige Book    

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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