Treasury yields are 2-3 basis points higher as the market digests multiple economic reports this morning.
The second estimate of Q4 GDP held steady at 2.3%, but the inflation metric within the report was revised higher. The January durables goods orders report was mixed, with topline orders higher than expected on a significant increase in commercial aircraft orders, but excluding that more volatile category, orders were flat for the month. However, core capital goods orders were higher than expected, suggesting higher private capital expenditure over the month. Lastly, initial jobless claims surged 22,000 last week to 242,000, the highest since the first week of December. The increase coincides with staff-reduction plans at multiple large corporations, including Starbucks, Meta, and Southwest Airlines. It doesn’t initially appear that claims by federal employees had a major impact on the data just yet, but economists will be watching that metric more closely in the coming weeks/months as DOGE-related layoffs continue. Several Fed leaders are scheduled to speak today, including Fed Governor Bowman speaking on the community banking outlook at an event in Kansas.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 2/27/2025 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.30% | 2.30% | 2.30% | — |
| 2/27/2025 | Personal Consumption | 4.10% | 4.20% | 4.20% | — |
| 2/27/2025 | GDP Price Index | 2.20% | 2.40% | 2.20% | — |
| 2/27/2025 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 2.50% | 2.70% | 2.50% | — |
| 2/27/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | 2.00% | 3.10% | -2.20% | -1.80% |
| 2/27/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.30% | 0.10% |
| 2/27/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | 0.80% | 0.40% | 0.20% |
| 2/27/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | -0.30% | 0.50% | 0.30% |
| 2/27/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 221k | 242k | 219k | 220k |
| 2/27/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1871k | 1862k | 1869k | 1867k |
| 2/27/2025 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -0.90% | — | -5.50% | — |
| 2/27/2025 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -1.10% | — | -2.90% | — |
| 2/27/2025 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -4 | — | -5 | — |
| 2/28/2025 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$116.7b | — | -$122.1b | -$122.0b |
| 2/28/2025 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 2/28/2025 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 2/28/2025 | Personal Spending | 0.20% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 2/28/2025 | Real Personal Spending | -0.10% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 2/28/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 2/28/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 2/28/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 2/28/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 2/28/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 2/28/2025 | MNI Chicago PMI | 40.8 | — | 39.5 | — |
| 2/28/2025 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | -4 | — |
| 3/3/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 51.6 | — |
| 3/3/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 3/3/2025 | ISM Manufacturing | 50.5 | — | 50.9 | — |
| 3/3/2025 | ISM Prices Paid | — | — | 54.9 | — |
| 3/3/2025 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 55.1 | — |
| 3/3/2025 | ISM Employment | — | — | 50.3 | — |
| 3/3/2025 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.90m | — | 15.60m | — |
| 3/5/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -1.20% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 133k | — | 183k | — |
| 3/5/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 49.7 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 50.4 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Factory Orders | 1.20% | — | -0.90% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 3.10% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | ISM Services Index | 53 | — | 52.8 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.30% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 60.4 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 51.3 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 52.3 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 3/6/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -39.50% | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Trade Balance | -$91.3b | — | -$98.4b | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Nonfarm Productivity | 1.20% | — | 1.20% | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Unit Labor Costs | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 242k | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1862k | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | — | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 1.00% | — |
