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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

A bounce higher in weekly jobless claims is sparking a 3-5 basis point decline in Treasury yields this morning.

Initial claims rose 22,000 last week to 231,000 (212,000 expected), the highest reading since the week ended December 5. Severe winter weather in parts of the country is likely the culprit for the sudden surge, but markets are a little jittery with the recent tech worries weighing on stocks. The December JOLTS report, delayed by a couple of days given the partial government shutdown, will be released later this morning, and the January jobs report will now be released next Wednesday. The tech-led selloff in equities is poised to extend another day, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.65% and 0.85%, respectively, 30 minutes ahead of the open. The Nasdaq shed nearly 3% of return over the prior two trading days.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/5/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —117.80%-8.30%     —
2/5/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —10843535553     —
2/5/2026Initial Jobless Claims212k231k209k     —
2/5/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —212.25k206.25k     —
2/5/2026Continuing Claims1850k1844k1827k1819k
2/5/2026JOLTS Job Openings7250k     —7146k     —
2/5/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.30%     —
2/5/2026JOLTS Quits Level3102k     —3161k     —
2/5/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%     —
2/5/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level1732k     —1687k     —
2/5/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment55     —56.4     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions53.7     —55.4     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. Expectations55.1     —57     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.00%     —4.00%     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.30%     —
2/6/2026Consumer Credit$8.000b     —$4.229b     —
2/9/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.42%     —
2/10/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism99.5     —99.5     —
2/10/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —7.750k     —
2/10/2026Import Price Index MoM     —     —0.00%-0.10%
2/10/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.20%0.00%
2/10/2026Import Price Index YoY     —     —0.10%     —
2/10/2026Export Price Index MoM     —     —     —     —
2/10/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —3.30%     —
2/10/2026Employment Cost Index0.80%     —0.80%     —
2/10/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.50%     —0.60%     —
2/10/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%     —0.50%     —
2/10/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.50%     —0.40%     —
2/10/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —0.40%     —
2/10/2026Business Inventories     —     —0.30%     —
2/11/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-8.90%     —
2/11/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls71k     —50k     —
2/11/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-76k     —
2/11/2026Change in Private Payrolls75k     —37k     —
2/11/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls-7k     —-8k     —
2/11/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —-22k     —
2/11/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
2/11/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —3.80%     —
2/11/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2     —34.2     —
2/11/2026Unemployment Rate4.40%     —4.40%     —
2/11/2026Labor Force Participation Rate62.40%     —62.40%     —
2/11/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —8.40%     —
2/11/2026Final Benchmark Payrolls Revision     —     —     —     —
2/11/2026Federal Budget Balance     —     —-$144.7b     —
2/12/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —231k     —
2/12/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —212.25k     —
2/12/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1844k     —
2/12/2026Existing Home Sales4.24m     —4.35m     —
2/12/2026Existing Home Sales MoM-2.60%     —5.10%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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