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Author Jason Haley

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Risk markets are recovering this morning after a rough few days.

S&P 500 futures are up 0.6% an hour before the open, with tech stocks leading the way, and Treasury yields are up 2-3 basis points across the curve. Today’s scheduled jobs report was rescheduled for next Wednesday, but the preliminary February University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will be released later this morning. Sentiment has held at historically low levels for much of the last year, but it hasn’t been enough to notably influence consumer spending in a negative fashion over that same timeframe. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson is scheduled to speak at noon today.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/6/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment55     —56.4     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions53.7     —55.4     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. Expectations55.1     —57     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.00%     —4.00%     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.30%     —
2/6/2026Consumer Credit$8.000b     —$4.229b     —
2/9/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.42%     —
2/10/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism99.8     —99.5     —
2/10/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —7.750k     —
2/10/2026Import Price Index MoM     —     —0.00%-0.10%
2/10/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.20%0.00%
2/10/2026Import Price Index YoY     —     —0.10%     —
2/10/2026Export Price Index MoM     —     —     —     —
2/10/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —3.30%     —
2/10/2026Employment Cost Index0.80%     —0.80%     —
2/10/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%     —0.60%     —
2/10/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%     —0.50%     —
2/10/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%     —0.40%     —
2/10/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —0.40%     —
2/10/2026Business Inventories0.20%     —0.30%     —
2/11/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-8.90%     —
2/11/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls70k     —50k     —
2/11/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-76k     —
2/11/2026Change in Private Payrolls75k     —37k     —
2/11/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls-7k     —-8k     —
2/11/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —-22k     —
2/11/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
2/11/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —3.80%     —
2/11/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2     —34.2     —
2/11/2026Unemployment Rate4.40%     —4.40%     —
2/11/2026Labor Force Participation Rate62.40%     —62.40%     —
2/11/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —8.40%     —
2/11/2026Final Benchmark Payrolls Revision-900k     —     —     —
2/11/2026Federal Budget Balance     —     —-$144.7b     —
2/12/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —231k     —
2/12/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —212.25k     —
2/12/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1844k     —
2/12/2026Existing Home Sales4.21m     —4.35m     —
2/12/2026Existing Home Sales MoM-3.20%     —5.10%     —
2/13/2026CPI MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
2/13/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
2/13/2026CPI YoY2.50%     —2.70%     —
2/13/2026Core CPI YoY2.50%     —2.60%     —
2/13/2026CPI Index NSA325.58     —324.054     —
2/13/2026Core CPI Index SA     —     —331.86     —
2/13/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.10%     —
2/13/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —1.10%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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