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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

The Treasury curve is twisting modestly steeper as the market awaits tier 1 labor market and inflation data for January later this week.

The delayed January jobs report will be released on Wednesday morning, which is expected to show 69,000 jobs to nonfarm payrolls, and the January CPI report will be released on Friday. There was some attention paid to a headline that Chinese regulators reportedly advised banks to reduce holdings of U.S. Treasuries due to concerns over market volatility. The report was attributed to unidentified sources and doesn’t apply to China’s state holdings (most significant exposure), so it’s unlikely as big of a news story as the headline would suggest. Several Fed leaders will speak this afternoon, including Governor Chris Waller who dissented at the last FOMC meeting in favor of another rate cut.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/9/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.42%     —
2/10/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism99.8     —99.5     —
2/10/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —7.750k     —
2/10/2026Import Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.00%-0.10%
2/10/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.20%0.00%
2/10/2026Import Price Index YoY0.10%     —0.10%     —
2/10/2026Export Price Index MoM0.10%     —     —     —
2/10/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —3.30%     —
2/10/2026Employment Cost Index0.80%     —0.80%     —
2/10/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%     —0.60%     —
2/10/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%     —0.50%     —
2/10/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%     —0.40%     —
2/10/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.50%     —0.40%     —
2/10/2026Business Inventories0.20%     —0.30%     —
2/11/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-8.90%     —
2/11/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls69k     —50k     —
2/11/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-76k     —
2/11/2026Change in Private Payrolls75k     —37k     —
2/11/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls-7k     —-8k     —
2/11/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —-22k     —
2/11/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
2/11/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —3.80%     —
2/11/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2     —34.2     —
2/11/2026Unemployment Rate4.40%     —4.40%     —
2/11/2026Labor Force Participation Rate62.40%     —62.40%     —
2/11/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —8.40%     —
2/11/2026Final Benchmark Payrolls Revision-863k     —     —     —
2/11/2026Federal Budget Balance-$89.0b     —-$144.7b     —
2/12/2026Initial Jobless Claims224k     —231k     —
2/12/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —212.25k     —
2/12/2026Continuing Claims1850k     —1844k     —
2/12/2026Existing Home Sales4.20m     —4.35m     —
2/12/2026Existing Home Sales MoM-3.50%     —5.10%     —
2/13/2026CPI MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
2/13/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
2/13/2026CPI YoY2.50%     —2.70%     —
2/13/2026Core CPI YoY2.50%     —2.60%     —
2/13/2026CPI Index NSA325.54     —324.054     —
2/13/2026Core CPI Index SA332.86     —331.86     —
2/13/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.10%     —
2/13/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —1.10%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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