The labor market didn’t cool in December, with 256,000 jobs added to nonfarm payrolls (165k expected).
The job gains were fairly strong across several private sectors, and average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m/m, as expected. In the household survey, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% (4.2% expected) as household employment rose 478,000. Treasury yields are 10 basis points higher on the front-end and belly of the curve in the immediate reaction.
A report like this should remove any urgency from Fed leaders to continue with rate cuts for the time being. Yesterday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said the cut on December 18 should be the last of the cycle, and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, a voting member in 2025, said that the Fed is “pretty close” to meeting its dual mandate for inflation and employment at the current funds rate. The latter opinion should only be further reinforced by today’s data. As of this morning, fed funds futures are effectively pricing one more 25 basis point cut in Q4 this year.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 1/10/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 165k | 256k | 227k | 212k |
| 1/10/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | -8k | 56k | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 140k | 223k | 194k | 182k |
| 1/10/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 5k | -13k | 22k | 25k |
| 1/10/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.40% | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.00% | 3.90% | 4.00% | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.3 | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Annual Revisions: Household Survey Data | ||||
| 1/10/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.20% | 4.10% | 4.20% | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.50% | 62.50% | 62.50% | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | 7.50% | 7.80% | 7.70% |
| 1/10/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 74 | — | 74 | — |
| 1/10/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 75.1 | — | 75.1 | — |
| 1/10/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 72.7 | — | 73.3 | — |
| 1/10/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.80% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 1/10/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 1/13/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 2.97% | — |
| 1/13/2025 | Federal Budget Balance | — | — | -$366.8b | — |
| 1/14/2025 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 100.5 | — | 101.7 | — |
| 1/14/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/14/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 1/14/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 1/14/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 1/14/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | — | — | 3.40% | — |
| 1/14/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.50% | — |
| 1/15/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -3.70% | — |
| 1/15/2025 | Empire Manufacturing | -2 | — | 0.2 | — |
| 1/15/2025 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 1/15/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 1/15/2025 | CPI YoY | 2.90% | — | 2.70% | — |
| 1/15/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.30% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 1/15/2025 | CPI Index NSA | 315.591 | — | 315.493 | — |
| 1/15/2025 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 322.657 | — |
| 1/15/2025 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.30% | — |
| 1/15/2025 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 1.00% | 0.90% |
| 1/15/2025 | Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 1/16/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | -8 | — | -16.4 | -10.9 |
| 1/16/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | — | — | 1.30% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -5.2 | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 201k | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1867k | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Business Inventories | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | NAHB Housing Market Index | — | — | 46 | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Housing Starts | 1315k | — | 1289k | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | 2.00% | — | -1.80% | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Building Permits | 1458k | — | 1493k | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Building Permits MoM | -2.40% | — | 5.20% | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 77.00% | — | 76.80% | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.40% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $152.3b | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $203.6b | — |
