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Author Jason Haley

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A risk-off trade emerged overnight on renewed concerns of threats to Fed independence by the Trump administration.

Reports surfaced yesterday that the Department of Justice had served the Fed and Chair Jerome Powell with a subpoena late last week related to expenditures on the renovation of the central bank headquarters. Powell released a written statement and video yesterday strongly pushing back on the allegations and suggesting they should be viewed “in the broader context of the administration’s threats and ongoing pressure.” Equity index futures are down 0.50% – 0.75% ahead of the open, but Treasury yields are actually higher and steeper this morning, an atypical but understandable (under the circumstances) response amid a flight-to-safety trade. Instead, gold and silver prices are up sharply today at +2.3% and +6.7% respectively.

There are no economic releases today, but the calendar heats up tomorrow with the release of the December CPI report. Later this week, wholesale inflation (PPI) and retail sales data from November will be released. Several Fed leaders are scheduled to speak this week as well, including three today (Bostic, Barkin, and Williams).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
1/13/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism99.5     —99     —
1/13/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —     —     —
1/13/2026CPI MoM0.30%     —     —     —
1/13/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —     —     —
1/13/2026CPI YoY2.70%     —2.70%     —
1/13/2026Core CPI YoY2.70%     —2.60%     —
1/13/2026CPI Index NSA324.267     —324.122     —
1/13/2026Core CPI Index SA332.058     —331.068     —
1/13/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —0.80%0.90%
1/13/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.80%0.90%
1/13/2026Census Releases Sept.-Oct. New Home Sales Reports on Jan. 13    
1/13/2026New Home Sales715k     —     —     —
1/13/2026New Home Sales MoM-10.60%     —     —     —
1/13/2026Federal Budget Balance-$152.5b     —-$173.3b     —
1/13/2026Building Permits     —     —1412k     —
1/13/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —-0.20%     —
1/14/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —0.30%     —
1/14/2026BLS to Release Oct. and Nov. PPI on Jan. 14    
1/14/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%     —     —     —
1/14/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%     —     —     —
1/14/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%     —     —     —
1/14/2026PPI Final Demand YoY2.70%     —     —     —
1/14/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.70%     —     —     —
1/14/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —     —     —
1/14/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.50%     —0.00%     —
1/14/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%     —0.40%     —
1/14/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —0.50%     —
1/14/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —0.80%     —
1/14/2026Current Account Balance-$241.0b     —-$251.3b     —
1/14/2026Existing Home Sales4.22m     —4.13m     —
1/14/2026Existing Home Sales MoM2.20%     —0.50%     —
1/14/2026Business Inventories0.10%     —0.20%     —
1/15/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-1.7     —-10.2-8.8
1/15/2026Initial Jobless Claims215k     —208k     —
1/15/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —211.75k     —
1/15/2026Continuing Claims1900k     —1914k     —
1/15/2026BLS Releases Limited Oct. Import-Export Series with Nov. Data    
1/15/2026Import Price Index MoM-0.10%     —     —     —
1/15/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.00%     —     —     —
1/15/2026Import Price Index YoY     —     —     —     —
1/15/2026Export Price Index MoM0.00%     —     —     —
1/15/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —     —     —
1/15/2026Empire Manufacturing1     —-3.9     —
1/15/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —-$37.3b     —
1/15/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$17.5b     —
1/16/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-20     —
1/16/2026Industrial Production MoM0.10%     —0.20%     —
1/16/2026Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.10%     —0.00%     —
1/16/2026Capacity Utilization76.00%     —76.00%     —
1/16/2026NAHB Housing Market Index40     —39     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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