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Author Jason Haley

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Treasuries are close to flat on the day as the market digests this morning’s PPI report for December.

The headline figures were softer than expected, which initially fueled a rally, but the underlying details, including a 7.2% m/m increase in airfares, raise concerns about a hotter PCE report later this month.

The Trump team is again leaking tentative tariff plans that are likely to test market reactions. In the current episode, Bloomberg is reporting that members of the President-elect’s economic team are considering gradually ramping up tariffs by 2%-5% a month to boost negotiating leverage and dampen the risk of an inflation spike. This would stand in contrast to Trump’s campaign pledge of 10%-20% tariffs on all imported goods and 60% or higher tariffs on Chinese imports. Tariff policy remains a notable source of uncertainty for global markets contemplating what path the incoming administration will take and the ultimate economic implications.

In other news, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 105.7 in December, the highest reading since October 2018. The net percent of business owners expecting the economy to improve rose 16 points from the prior month to 52%, the highest since 1983.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
1/14/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism102.1105.1101.7—
1/14/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.40%0.20%0.40%—
1/14/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.00%0.20%—
1/14/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%0.10%0.10%—
1/14/2025PPI Final Demand YoY3.50%3.30%3.00%—
1/14/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.80%3.50%3.40%3.50%
1/14/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY—3.30%3.50%—
1/14/2025Federal Budget Balance-$80.0b—-$366.8b—
1/15/2025MBA Mortgage Applications——-3.70%—
1/15/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——1.00%0.90%
1/15/2025Empire Manufacturing3—0.2—
1/15/2025CPI MoM0.40%—0.30%—
1/15/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%—0.30%—
1/15/2025CPI YoY2.90%—2.70%—
1/15/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.30%—3.30%—
1/15/2025CPI Index NSA315.615—315.493—
1/15/2025CPI Core Index SA323.4—322.657—
1/15/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——1.30%—
1/15/2025Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book    
1/16/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-5—-16.4-10.9
1/16/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM0.60%—0.70%—
1/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%—0.20%—
1/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%—0.20%—
1/16/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.40%—0.40%—
1/16/2025Import Price Index MoM-0.10%—0.10%—
1/16/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%—0.20%—
1/16/2025Import Price Index YoY2.10%—1.30%—
1/16/2025Export Price Index MoM0.10%—0.00%—
1/16/2025Export Price Index YoY——0.80%—
1/16/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity——-5.2—
1/16/2025Initial Jobless Claims210k—201k—
1/16/2025Continuing Claims1870k—1867k—
1/16/2025Business Inventories0.10%—0.10%—
1/16/2025NAHB Housing Market Index45—46—
1/17/2025Housing Starts1325k—1289k—
1/17/2025Housing Starts MoM2.80%—-1.80%—
1/17/2025Building Permits1460k—1493k—
1/17/2025Building Permits MoM-2.20%—5.20%—
1/17/2025Industrial Production MoM0.30%—-0.10%—
1/17/2025Capacity Utilization77.00%—76.80%—
1/17/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.20%—0.20%—
1/17/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows——$152.3b—
1/17/2025Total Net TIC Flows——$203.6b—
1/21/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity——-6—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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